A new CBS News survey finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico essentially tied in Texas, leaving the Senate race open and hanging on who actually votes.
The CBS News/YouGov poll of Texas registered voters shows a contest that is no longer about big leads. It is about turnout in the closing weeks.
Field work ran October 8-16, 2026. Interviewers reached a representative sample of 1,492 registered voters. Results were weighted to gender, age, race, education, and the 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 points among registered voters and 3.5 points among likely voters.
Texas still leans Republican. That structural edge helps Paxton. Yet the race is close enough that Democrats see a path if their voters show up and some independents peel away.
That same tension has already shown up in other recent Texas Senate polling, including a tight CBS snapshot of the Paxton-Talarico matchup.
Cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters. Most say higher prices have hurt them. Among those voters, Talarico holds a sizable lead over Paxton.
Personal character also breaks his way. More voters see Talarico as having the right character to serve as senator. For his backers, those personal qualities matter far more than they do for Paxton’s.
He also chips at the Republican base in small but real ways. Talarico gets 5% of self-identified Republicans. He draws 9% of people who say they never vote for Democrats, but will this time.
Campaign pressure has stayed high on both sides, from trail absences to sharp ads, including the period when Paxton pressed Talarico over a stretch off the trail.
Paxton’s support looks more partisan. A large share of his voters back him because he is the Republican nominee, because they want to stop Talarico, or because they want to support President Trump.
Texas also gives the Trump administration’s deportation program more support than the most recent CBS News national poll. That gap fits the state’s conservative baseline and gives Paxton a clearer lane on enforcement.
Nearly half of voters view Talarico as “very liberal.” When they see him that way, they break for Paxton. In a state where few voters call themselves liberal, that label is a ceiling problem for the Democrat.
Internal Republican fights have also followed the race, including moments when Trump hit Cornyn and Rove over Paxton’s Senate bid.
Younger voters back Talarico in large percentages. The catch is familiar. Younger voters usually turn out at lower rates than older ones. His path depends on converting that preference into ballots.
Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024. Most now back Talarico. They are more likely than voters overall to call higher prices a hardship. Most also say Paxton does not have the right personal character for the Senate.
That shift is real in the crosstabs. It is not automatic on Election Day. Talarico still needs to run up the score with independents, peel off some Republicans, or activate enough new voters to offset the state’s heavier Republican rolls.
His own messaging has tried to widen that lane, including an ad track that hit the Biden border record while he courted the seat.
The same survey gives incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Ticket-splitting shows up too. Abbott receives the backing of 7% of Talarico voters.
That split underlines the state’s habits. Texas can flirt with a competitive Senate race and still default to Republican strength further down the ballot.
Other recent surveys have painted a similar picture of a narrow fight, including one in which Paxton held a half-point edge over Talarico.
Democrats in the poll are more likely to say they will definitely vote. That helps Talarico’s standing on paper. Paxton’s side still has the larger pool of Republicans and the clearer brand advantage against a candidate many see as very liberal.
The race is therefore simple and hard at the same time. Paxton needs the Republican lean and Trump-aligned voters to show up. Talarico needs price-hurt voters, younger voters, and most Latinos to turn preference into turnout, plus enough independents and soft Republicans to break the usual pattern.
In a state with more Republicans than Democrats, a dead heat is not a finished deal. It is a warning that the closing weeks will reward the side that gets its people to the polls.
Texas remains a Republican state. Close polls do not erase that, they only test whether Democrats can out-organize the map for one night.
