A new CBS News/YouGov survey finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’s U.S. Senate race, with turnout and pocketbook pressure still deciding the finish.
The CBS News poll, conducted with YouGov among 1,492 registered Texas voters from October 8 to 16, 2026, frames the contest as a toss-up in the closing weeks. The margin of error is ±3.4 points among registered voters and ±3.5 points among likely voters.
Texas still leans Republican overall. Paxton draws much of his backing from voters who support the GOP nominee, want to back President Trump, or simply want to stop Talarico. Support in Texas for the Trump administration’s deportation program also runs stronger than in the most recent CBS News national poll, giving Paxton another structural edge in a red state.
But the same survey shows why Democrats still see a path. Cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say higher prices have hurt them. Among those voters, Talarico holds a sizable lead over Paxton.
More voters give Talarico the edge on personal character to serve in the Senate. That perception helps a Democrat trying to win statewide in Texas.
Ideology cuts the other way. Nearly half of respondents call Talarico “very liberal.” When voters apply that label, they break for Paxton. Few Texans in the sample describe themselves as liberal, so the “very liberal” tag is a real risk for the Democrat in a state that still rewards conservative branding.
Talarico still peels off a slice of the other side. He takes 5% of self-identified Republicans and 9% of voters who say they never vote for Democrats, but plan to this time. Those are small shares. In a dead heat, small shares matter.
Younger voters back Talarico in large percentages. More Democrats also say they will definitely vote, which lifts his standing in a race the poll treats as a turnout fight as much as a preference fight.
The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education using U.S. Census benchmarks, and by 2024 presidential vote. That 2024 weighting matters in Texas: Latino voters there swung toward Trump last cycle, reinforcing the state’s Republican baseline even as Democrats hunt for price-driven defections.
Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the race for governor. Ticket-splitting appears limited. Abbott still draws 7% of Talarico voters, a reminder that statewide Democratic strength in Texas remains uneven from contest to contest.
The Senate race is the clearer toss-up. Paxton’s coalition rests on party loyalty, Trump alignment, and tougher immigration enforcement. Talarico’s opening runs through inflation-weary voters, stronger character marks, younger turnout, and a small band of unusual crossovers. The poll does not crown a winner. It shows a state that still defaults Republican, and a Democrat who has made the race about prices and personal trust instead of a pure partisan referendum.
In Texas, the conservative baseline still favors Paxton; whether cost-of-living anger and turnout erase that edge is the only real question left on the table.
