For NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to be effective in implementing his agenda, he will need the support of the governor of New York.
Current Gov. Kathy Hochul endorsed Mamdani's candidacy, and while she has thus far resisted the urge to raise taxes, many believe it is only a matter of time before she caves into his wishes rather than be used as a punching bag by the new mayor and his supporters if she stands firm.
That may not matter, however, because Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) has finally announced that she is running for governor, and her potential election would be an utter nightmare for Mamdani.
There were plenty of Democrat leaders who chose not to endorse Mamdani in Tuesday's election, but Hochul eventually folded and backed his campaign.
She then wrote an op-ed in The New York Times to explain her position on his candidacy. In part, she explained, “In the past few months, I’ve had frank conversations with him. We’ve had our disagreements.”
Hochul continued, “But in our conversations, I heard a leader who shares my commitment to a New York where children can grow up safe in their neighborhoods and where opportunity is within reach for every family. I heard a leader who is focused on making New York City affordable -- a goal I enthusiastically support.”
The governor has managed to avoid the tax issue, at least for now, but the second Mamdani is sworn in, he will start to apply pressure on that front. And if Hochul caves, it will significantly hurt her in the upcoming election cycle.
In 2022, former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) put a real scare into Democrats, winning more support during his gubernatorial bid than anyone had imagined.
Zeldin lost the race by less than 7%, which was a huge showing over the 2018 election, in which Andrew Cuomo destroyed his Republican counterpart, Marc Molinaro, by more than 23%.
This was more or less seen as an opening for the GOP to try to take this state again in 2026, and Stefanik got the nod fron Donald Trump to take on Hochul to try to turn the blue state red. In announcing her candidacy, she stated, “Under [Hochul’s] failed leadership, New York is the most unaffordable state in the nation with the highest taxes, highest energy, utilities, rent, and grocery bills. When New Yorkers were looking for leadership from our governor, she bent the knee to the raging defund the police, tax hiking communist causing catastrophe for New York families.” She added, “I am running for governor to make New York affordable and safe for all.”
This is a huge task, especially considering Mamdani's Tuesday win, but Stefanik has Trump’s full backing, and the president did make inroads in New York during the 2024 presidential race, so Republican success is possible.
I don’t want to get too tied up in polling just yet, as Stefanik only just announced her run, but there are some wacky numbers out there, so I wanted to clarify what is happening right now.
Stefanik has consistently been polling at -20% or worse against Hochul, but that was before she was officially in the race, so I don’t really worry about those numbers. Then, before she announced, a right-leaning enterprise, the Manhattan Institute, ran a survey that took a 25-point deficit in the last Siena poll and turned it into a +1 for Stefanik. I can tell you flat-out that I don’t believe that number, either.
When that poll came out, Hochul’s office responded, “You’ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik: when her own polls don’t reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors -- like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer -- to repeat her lies. Unfortunately for her, New Yorkers aren’t interested in letting an unhinged Trump enabler anywhere near the Governor’s mansion.”
I am going to take a stab at this and say that Stefanik is likely down about 10 to 15 points right now, but I expect her numbers to improve now that she is about to go into campaign mode. Her campaign effectiveness will also be tied to the success or failure, or perceived success or failure, of Mamdani in New York City. She has a real chance in this race, but it is going to take a lot of time and money from the RNC, as well as Trump spending a lot of time in the state campaigning for her. But here is the only thing you need to know about this race... if you want to stop Mamdani from ruining New York City, electing Stefanik is likely the only way to do that.
