The GOP is in for the fight of its life in 2026, and that fight just got a little bit harder.
Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX) has decided not to run for office again.
Arrington serves as the House Budget Committee chairman, so this is a huge hit for the GOP at a time when Republicans need every incumbent they have to hold their seats.
Since the 1930s, there have only been two administrations that have not taken a loss during their first midterm election, the last being the George W. Bush administration after the 9/11 attacks.
In most cases, the party in the White House sees not just a loss but an electoral bloodbath. However, the recent exception to that was Joe Biden, who only lost nine seats when the GOP heavily underperformed in the 2022 cycle.
This was a big deal because the GOP needed a huge win ahead of this particular moment, when history shows that it will be tough for Republicans to hold the House.
To that point, the GOP now only holds a six-seat advantage (just two votes), so if history holds true, the party could suddenly be looking at a deficit of several dozen seats. For instance, Donald Trump's party lost 40 seats in his first midterm election in 2018. Barack Obama lost 63 seats in his first midterm. Bill Clinton lost 52 in his first midterm election. If the GOP sees losses like that, it will be years before we come close to getting the House back again.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was very happy that the Senate finally came to an agreement this week to end the government shutdown.
He immediately told House members to plan on being back in D.C. by Wednesday so he can reopen the House for business, which will include swearing in Democrat Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva from Arizona.
On the matter of the House reopening, Johnson explained, "We're going to get everybody back on a 36-hour notice, so it'll be happening early this week.”
After the deal in the Senate to end the shutdown was announced, Johnson stated, "It's a great development. It's long overdue. It vindicates our position in this all along.”
Due to the nature of the upcoming midterms, having as many incumbents as possible is vital, as they are more likely to secure a win than a new face with whom voters are not familiar.
Texas just redrew its district maps, so replacing Arrington should not be difficult, but again, the issues at hand for the GOP are more about familiarity and saving as much money as possible to defend battleground seats.
Arrington, however, is out of the running, stating, "I have a firm conviction, much like our founders did, that public service is a lifetime commitment, but public office is and should be a temporary stint in stewardship, not a career.”
I completely respect that sentiment, and I wish everyone in office had a similar outlook, but I just wish he would stay for one more cycle. Hopefully, the party can identify someone immediately to fill his seat, making voters familiar with that name and face swiftly so that he or she can coast to victory next year.
