Tuesday was a very bad day for the Republican Party, but if I am being honest, it was of the GOP's own doing. I say this to give a jolt to anyone buying into the idea that these were all just predictable outcomes in blue states and cities that we should not be worrying about.
Even President Donald Trump could not wrap this one up in strawberries and whipped cream, admitting that the election results were horrible for the party he leads.
Trump's reasoning for that take, however, was flawed, so give me a few minutes of your time to explain how the situation goes much deeper than what the president referenced.
Trump told reporters that Tuesday “was not expected to be a victory,” then he added, "I think, if you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor. Negative for the Republicans, and that was a big factor." He then added, “And they say that I wasn't on the ballot and was the biggest factor. But I don't know about that. But I was honored that they said that."
First, if anyone in the party went into this cycle not expecting to win, they made a huge mistake. You had weak Democrat candidates in the noteworthy Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City races, yet they all won because the RNC, whose leadership was hand-picked by Trump, did not take the contests seriously. According to reports, Trump did not give officials the green light to spend money on these races until this weekend, which was akin to flushing money down the toilet at that point.
Second, the ongoing government shutdown was another factor at play, and I knew it would be. I thought the GOP did a very good job on messaging regarding the funding standoff, and for once, the media actually blamed the Democrats for what was occurring, but public sentiment, as I repeatedly stated, always goes against the party in charge in the end.
Third, make no mistake about it, even though Trump’s name was not on the ballot, he was top of mind for voters who pulled the lever during this cycle. This administration has to do a better job of getting the message out that what it is doing is working, or 2026 will be far worse than even I anticipate it will be, and I already think it will be bad.
You have to listen to what people are saying, even if it goes against what you are trying to accomplish, because there are always better ways to do things, particularly for the sake of optics.
The biggest hit that I believe Trump is taking right now is on immigration, most notably in relation to massive roundups of “non-criminal” illegal immigrants. And I am on Trump’s side on this, but when you have videos blowing up online of ICE agents smashing car windows and then have reports surface that American citizens are being arrested by mistake, this hits home with moderate voters.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), who is very much at risk of losing his seat, addressed the issue, stating, “I think, when you look at the numbers, people, overwhelmingly, across the country, including in Latino communities, support securing the border. They support the deportation of criminal aliens. What they don’t support is an overarching roundup of those who are here undocumented.”
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY), another New York Republican whose seat is at risk, added, “The president did secure the border, and he is deporting the criminals. But the issue, I believe, with the Latino vote -- and somebody who’s half Hispanic and also a member of the Republican Hispanic Caucus, we’ve been sounding the alarm that we need to make sure that we’re focused on the criminals, not people who have been here a long time, have American citizens as children.”
Yes, I am very worried about 2026 after seeing what happened in Tuesday's elections, and I refuse to brush it off as “blue” city and state wins that really don’t mean anything. The three biggest races were all winnable ones, so now we need to learn a lesson from them.
First and foremost, the GOP has to end the government shutdown. It pains me to say this, but it is necessary to put legislation on the floor, immediately, to extend Obamacare subsidies as they are for one year. It means taking a small hit, but it also puts the ball in the Democrats' court and forces them to vote "no" on something they have been whining about since day one.
Second, we must find a real solution to this immigration problem. I have given a framework before, which would include offering all illegals in this country to leave on their own, with the promise that they can get in the legal line to come back (those who do not leave voluntarily will be banned permanently if they are caught and deported). For those who are currently working, offer a stay option that would include an “immigration tax” on their income, say 2%, as well as having their employer being taxed in kind. They can stay, but they can never have citizenship, and they will never be able to collect entitlement benefits.
Third, the GOP must take every race seriously because you just never know what can happen, as this election cycle proved. And fourth, stop the public bickering and bullying. If you have a problem with someone, and this goes all the way up to Trump, pick up the phone, set a meeting, and work it out. When you do battle in the media and and online, people dig in and fire back. It makes for horrible optics, and it is one reason that I believe people are leaving the party. We can fix this, but people who have been acting like children for a decade need to grow up and act like adults. You do that, you just might have a chance to save 2026. You don’t, and it will be an election bloodbath the likes of which we have not seen.
