According to a report over the weekend in The Hill, Donald Trump’s support with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and a growing contingent of the GOP caucus is “collapsing.”
Thune’s requests for information on the Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) were reportedly rejected by Trump or ignored. Trump also pulled his nomination of Jay Clayton for Director of National Intelligence (DNI) off the table over the SAVE America Act.
And this now goes well beyond Thune and the usual players who have resisted Trump, such as Senators Susan Collins (R-ME), Rand Paul (R-KY), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Senator John Kennedy (R-LA), an ardent supporter of Trump’s in the past, recently likened Trump’s behavior to that of a child wanting a Porsche.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), someone who has a voting record of backing Trump more than 99% of the time but who found himself on the wrong side of a Senate endorsement, has said that the trust between Trump and the GOP Senate has been destroyed.
This is no longer a party squabble or ambush that needs a vote by Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) to overcome. No, this is a true erosion of the relationship between Republicans and the White House that needs to be fixed ASAP.
There were clearly some breaks between the White House and never-Trumpers in the Senate, but things really went sideways for Trump when he endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. Cornyn in the primary race.
Trump had steered clear of making an endorsement, allowing voters to decide. And Cornyn clearly attached himself to Trump, pushing his voting record to try to lure in support during the primary race.
Cornyn, however, is viewed as establishment, and Paxton has been a major MAGA figure since Trump’s first administration. Trump picked blind public loyalty over voting record with an incumbent who likely would have rolled over anyone Democrats put on the ticket in the general election.
The snub of Cornyn did not sit well with a lot of Republicans, including many of those who have backed Trump throughout his presidency. Cracks that were dripping turned into a steady flow, with senators like Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Kennedy suddenly pushing back against Trump on key policies or calling out his behavior.
When Trump released the Iran MOU publicly rather than running it by Senate Republicans first, Thune took it as a slight and was clearly unhappy about it, stating:
"The president has his own mind, makes his own decisions. So do we."
When Trump announced he was pulling the DNI nomination to force through the SAVE America Act, it was like a declaration of war against his conference. Trump has also requested that Thune nuke the filibuster to force the legislation through, a request that was also declined by Thune.
Keep in mind, the Anti-Weaponization Fund had also collapsed due to Republican pushback, which I covered in a previous deep dive (click here to read that report). A week later, I had done another report on the confirmation battles that were taking place and how it was impacting this relationship (click here to read that report).
This was friction that was easy to see, and this collapse was fairly predictable considering both sides appeared to dig in and were not willing to budge.
I really don’t like to use that term, as it makes it sound like a cult, but with this fracture now taking place, I have to wonder if they were voting for Trump’s agenda out of fear or if they truly believed in it.
My take on this is that a contingent of senators were voting with Trump on issues they did not truly agree with or support, but they were looking at his election as a mandate by the voters, and they were correct to do so, especially when you consider how popular Trump was coming out of that election.
Even though some did not fully back legislation or spending, or even nominations, they all voted with Trump. But everything changed when Trump tossed Cornyn to the curb. They started to wonder what their loyalty was getting them, and if they were going to be next.
When you look at polling for Trump’s agenda on things such as the economy and the Iran war, Trump no longer has overwhelming public support. Add that to a crashing overall approval rating (now under 40%), and it has become safer to push back against Trump. And they are doing just that. This is now about survival mode for many of these senators.
Even with all these problems, all is not yet lost for Trump, but Wednesday is likely to be a make-or-break day for him.
He is scheduled to sit down with the Steering Committee, which is chaired by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), another Trump loyalist. Among the topics of conversation will be the DNI nomination, the SAVE America Act, and the Iran MOU.
Trump has two options here. He can walk in and make peace, or he can continue to push back and try to bully his way through this session. If Trump starts to threaten to primary people, well, I think we have seen how that plays out over the last few months.
I really wish Trump would try to make peace here, but his track record is proven on this front, and at 80 years old, does anyone really expect him to change? But believe me, I want to be wrong about this.
The way I see it, Wednesday is either a new beginning or the fuse gets lit, and the bomb goes off.
