Vice President JD Vance lifted off from Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Friday, bound for Islamabad with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to open what could become the most consequential diplomatic talks of the Trump presidency. Their mission: end the war that began on February 28 and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for global energy markets that has been effectively shuttered for weeks.
President Trump, boarding Air Force One the same day, told reporters what he said to his vice president before departure.
"I wished him luck. He's got a big thing. We'll find out what's going on. They're militarily defeated."
That four-word assessment, "they're militarily defeated", sets the tone for a negotiation in which the administration plainly intends to deal from strength. The talks are slated to begin Saturday in the Pakistani capital, where Iran's own high-level delegation arrived ahead of the American team.
The American contingent is small but senior. Vance leads it, flanked by Witkoff, who has served as Trump's special envoy, and Kushner, whose precise role in the delegation has not been publicly defined. Trump expressed confidence in the trio.
"We'll see how it turns out. So it's JD and Steve and Jared. We have a good team, and they meet tomorrow. We'll see how it all works out."
Iran matched the seniority. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad later on Friday, accompanied by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Supreme National Defense Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and other senior Pakistani officials received the Iranian delegation at the airport, the Daily Mail reported.
The breadth of Iran's team, spanning parliament, the foreign ministry, the defense council, and the central bank, signals Tehran is prepared to discuss more than just a ceasefire. But it also came with preconditions.
Qalibaf posted on social media before the talks that a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of blocked Iranian assets "must be fulfilled before negotiations begin." That kind of demand-before-we-talk posture is familiar to anyone who has watched Tehran negotiate over the past four decades.
Vance, speaking at Joint Base Andrews before boarding Air Force Two, made clear the administration would not be played. He said Trump had given the team firm direction.
"The president gave us some pretty clear guidelines."
He then drew a line that left little room for ambiguity.
"If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they're gonna try and play us, then they're gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive."
That framing, open hand or closed fist, your choice, is exactly the kind of posture American diplomacy has lacked for years. The Biden administration spent its tenure chasing a return to the 2015 nuclear deal, offering concession after concession while Iran enriched uranium, armed proxies, and stalled. The Trump team is signaling a different approach: results first, goodwill second.
The earlier round of ceasefire talks between Vance, Witkoff, and Iranian counterparts laid groundwork for this moment, but Saturday's session in Islamabad carries higher stakes and a wider agenda.
Beyond the war itself, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a flashpoint that threatens global energy markets. Marine Traffic reported Friday that only 14 vessels, half of them laden, have crossed the strait since a ceasefire was declared on April 8. Before the conflict, more than 100 ships passed through each day.
That is a staggering collapse in traffic through one of the world's most important shipping lanes. Vessels exiting the Persian Gulf accounted for 70 percent of all crossings, Marine Traffic said, and sanctioned or shadow-fleet-linked vessels made up nearly two-thirds of the total. In other words, the legitimate commercial traffic that the global economy depends on has nearly vanished.
Trump addressed the situation directly. Asked about reports that Iran may be imposing tolls on ships transiting the strait, the president was unequivocal.
"It's international water. If they're doing that, nobody knows if they're doing that, but if they're doing that, we're not going to let that happen."
He predicted the problem would resolve itself once a deal is reached, noting that Iran's own economy depends on the waterway staying open.
"The strait will open up. If we just left the strait, otherwise they make no money. So the strait is going to open."
He added a dose of realism: "It won't be easy. It won't be, I would say this, we will have that open fairly soon."
The conflict extends well beyond Iran's borders. Israel has been targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, with strikes reported in the city of Tyre and the Abbasiyeh neighborhood as recently as April 8, 2026. Qalibaf's demand for a Lebanon ceasefire as a precondition to talks shows how intertwined these theaters have become.
That interconnection is precisely why the administration sent such a senior team. A narrow deal on one front would leave the others smoldering. The inclusion of Iran's central bank governor suggests sanctions relief and frozen assets will be on the table, leverage the United States holds and should not surrender cheaply.
The path to Islamabad has not been smooth inside the administration, either. Trump's Iran policy has generated friction with allies and even members of his own orbit. The president publicly rebuked prominent conservative voices who questioned his approach, and internal tensions reportedly extended to senior staff.
At one point, Roger Stone reportedly intervened to prevent the firing of Tulsi Gabbard over an Iran policy disagreement, a sign of how deeply the issue has cut within Trump's circle.
The open questions heading into Saturday are substantial. What are the exact terms of the temporary ceasefire? What mediation framework governs the Islamabad talks? What specific role does Kushner play? And most important: is Iran's delegation empowered to make real commitments, or is this another exercise in buying time?
The shipping data alone tells you the urgency. Fourteen vessels in weeks, where hundreds once passed daily. Energy markets, allied economies, and American credibility all hang on whether this administration can translate military leverage into a durable agreement.
Vance, for his part, has more than policy at stake. As the vice president who may ask voters to make him the next president in two years, his performance in Islamabad will be watched as a test of his readiness for the top job. His record so far, including leading a task force that flagged $6.3 billion in suspect government contracts, shows a willingness to take on difficult assignments. Islamabad is the biggest yet.
Trump's parting words to Vance were characteristically direct. No flowery send-off. No diplomatic hedging. Just a wish of luck and a blunt assessment of the enemy's position.
For decades, American presidents have approached Iran with elaborate theories about engagement, reset buttons, and diplomatic breakthroughs that never arrived. This administration is trying something simpler: negotiate from strength, keep the pressure on, and make clear that the open hand comes with a clenched alternative. Whether Tehran is finally ready to deal honestly is the only question that matters now.
