When Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced he was going to primary Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), I think it may have taken Trump by surprise.
Trump had announced that he was not going to get involved in the primary at the time, saying that he liked both candidates and would let them fight it out.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is also in the race, and it has not turned into a 3-way tie for all intents and purposes, but that could change rather dramatically, as Trump says he is now considering endorsing someone in the race.
All three men have shown loyalty to Trump, but this race is more about being able to ensure whoever comes out of the fray can beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), who, after her allies lobbied racist allegations against her opponent, has roared to the lead.
At first, it was Cornyn and Paxton in a duel, but Hunt, somehow, has managed to get back into this race despite ignoring his duties as a congressman (he has missed more than 90% of recent votes).
Trump now appears ready to put his thumb on the scale, stating, “I’m giving it a very serious look. You know, my problem is I’m friendly with all of them. I like all of them, all three.”
He then added, “But you’ll be seeing soon. They say whoever I endorse wins. That’s probably right.”
I have never hidden my disdain for Cornyn, as he is a Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) loyalist, pure establishment, and deeply embedded in the swamp. Yet, he has gained Trump’s favor.
Paxton has a closet full of corrupt allegations made against him, and he was nearly impeached, but he was saved by a Republican-dominated state Senate that refused to give in to Democrats.
My initial horse in this race was Hunt, but I just cannot reward him for completely neglecting his duties as a House member while running for another office. What he is doing is the exact reason I believe members should be forced to resign from office or have fulfilled their term before running for a different office.
While Cornyn was initially the leader in this race, time has not been his friend, as he has now been passed, and he is in jeopardy of not making the inevitable runoff election.
If we go back to early polling, there were times when Cornyn was up by 17%, but now he is often the third man listed in polling, including the most recent JL Partners poll, giving the lead to Hunt or Paxton.
In early January, there was an Emerson College poll that listed Paxton at the top, and the McLaughlin & Associates poll taken in December also had Paxton and Hunt in the top two positions. That makes this all about who has the best chance to beat Crockett, who is leading her primary race in three out of the last four polls, two of them very convincingly.
If we look at the most recent polls, Cornyn is ahead of Crockett by six points, Hunt leads Crockett by five points, and Paxton is ahead of Crockett by eight points. The only candidate who struggles against her opponent, State. Rep. James Talarico (D-50), is Paxton, as the two of them are locked into a dead heat right now.
With Cornyn losing all momentum, I would have to think that Trump is going to look at Paxton or Hunt in this race. Paxton scares me because of all his baggage, but I find it very hard to get behind Hunt because of his work habits. I usually have a lot more insight into these Texas races, but I am truly stumped as to whom Trump is going to pick here. Having said that, I am twitching toward Hunt, just don’t hold me to that just yet.
