Donald Trump has just turned the election world on its ear.
Trump recommended a midterm convention to drum up support in what is historically a bad cycle for the party that most recently reclaimed the White House.
The president's announcement already has Democrats scrambling to counter the idea.
There is no way around the fact that, historically, the midterm election after a new party takes over the White House is a bloodbath for the side occupying the Oval Office. Since 1934, there have only been two presidents to gain seats in their first midterm election, and both had rather unique circumstances.
FDR gained nine seats in the 1934 midterm election amid the Great Depression, so you can understand why people were hesitant for change in the House at the time. And George W. Bush picked up eight seats in the 2002 election, again, amid a major conflict, so voters wanted to allow him to keep his people in Congress.
The only other president to gain seats during a midterm was Bill Clinton, who picked up five seats during his second midterm election after having lost 52 in his first term.
In terms of devastating defeats, in 1938, FDR lost 81 seats, followed by another 46 in 1942. Harry Truman lost 45 seats in 1946, Lyndon Johnson lost 47 in 1966, Gerald Ford lost 48 in 1974, Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010, and Trump lost 40 in 2018.
Trump may act a bit off the hook at times, but he knows his history, and he knows the GOP is facing a massive task with a razor-thin majority. He also knows that Democrats will likely try to impeach him again if they win back the House, so he is making moves to drive support to the GOP.
This week, Trump announced the idea of a midterm convention, stating, "The Republican Party is doing really well. Millions of people have joined us in our quest to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. We won every aspect of the Presidential Election and, based on the great success we are having, are poised to WIN BIG IN THE MIDTERMS."
He continued, "We have raised far more money than the Democrats, and are having a great time fixing all of the Country Destroying mistakes made by the Biden Administration, and watching the USA heal and prosper. The results are incredible, a record pace!!! In that light, I am thinking of recommending a National Convention to the Republican Party, just prior to the Midterms. It has never been done before. STAY TUNED!"
Democrats, of course, are mulling over the same idea, with DNC spokesperson Abhi Rahman stating, "To showcase our tremendous candidates running up and down the ballot and harness the amazing grassroots energy we’re already seeing, several options are on the table for next year, including hosting a large-scale gathering before the midterms.”
I am not big on the convention itself, but I love the idea of the headlines it will create for the party as well as the opportunity to reach out to voters it may struggle to attract during a midterm election.
Mehek Cooke just penned an opinion piece on Fox News, writing, “This convention is a seismic shift that sends a clear message to every politician: fight for the American people or step aside.”
If Trump wants to help the GOP win these midterm elections to hold the House, he will have to keep making headway with younger voters. I honestly believe he will have made significant headway with minority voters as a result of his crime crackdown, as I am seeing a huge movement on social media on that front.
Here’s the thing, though… Trump made a lot of promises to minority communities during the 2024 cycle, and the economy is not exactly firing on all cylinders right now, as unemployment just ticked up another 0.1%. He needs to make sure he delivers on those promises, and he needs to get this trade war sorted out. If he does that, we have a chance. If not, we are facing another bloodbath and a miserable two years in the second half of his term.
