The last few weeks have not been good regarding potential peace between Russia and Ukraine.
While it seemed like a deal was imminent less than a month ago, Russia has since postured and landed several more strikes against Ukraine.
Things have changed a bit in recent days, however, as reports are surfacing that Russian troops in the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk are near collapse, which could give Vladimir Putin reason to reconsider inking that deal.
Several weeks ago, reports surfaced that a plan was nearly in place that would achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine. As a matter of fact, Democrats were claiming that Russia had written the terms of the potential deal, but that was not actually the case. Even so, at that point, it was simply a matter of Ukraine making its desired changes and, hopefully, getting the parties together to sign an agreement.
That scenario did not last long, however, as Russia took exception to some statements that were made, then conducted more strikes against Ukraine, with reports also surfacing that Moscow would reject the proposed peace deal.
Aleksei Naumov, an analyst of international affairs based in the Russian capital, stated, “This is an absolute mockery. The idea is clear: Pitch this to the Americans as a ‘compromise,’ and then blame Russia for its failure.”
This was par for the course for Russia, which had portrayed itself as interested in prior peace deals, only to pull out of talks, change its mind, or act as though it was offended about something.
Hopes were high again this week, as it was announced that Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky would be traveling to the United States to meet with Trump to address concerns about the deal. Prior to his meeting with Trump, Zelensky stated, “Every meeting and every conversation brings us closer to the desired result.”
Zelensky was touting a 20-point plan that he hoped would serve as the final framing for the peace deal, but his optimism was soon dampened by Trump, who stated, “He doesn’t have anything until I approve it. So we’ll see what he’s got.”
The formal meeting will take place on Sunday, but Zelensky has already met with some U.S. officials, posting, “There are good ideas that can work toward a shared outcome and the lasting peace. Real security, real recovery, and real peace are what all of us need – Ukraine, the United States, Europe, and every partner who helps us. I hope that today’s Christmas understandings and the ideas we discussed will prove useful.”
I would love for his thoughts to become truth, as we really need to get this war over with. Otherwise, Ukraine just continues to be a drain on our military assets.
I truly believe the only way this war ends is if Russia is in a position where it can no longer sustain continued attacks, and that break may have just taken place.
Reports surfaced on Christmas night that Russian troops had been cut off in Kupyansk and were near collapse. If that assessment is accurate, it could give Ukraine a massive bargaining chip to use against Putin.
Of the Russian troops in that area, Viktor Trehubov, head of communications for Ukraine’s Joint Forces grouping, stated, "They are surrendering. There have even been cases of foreigners — foreign mercenaries for the Russians — giving themselves up."
This will hopefully provide the break that Trump needs to get Putin to seriously consider a deal. And with Kupyansk going back to Ukrainian control, it is one more territory that goes off the table that Zelensky may have otherwise had to concede. It’s a huge opening, but this all comes down to Putin and Zelensky’s pride. If they are not both willing to take a hit, we go back to the drawing board.
