Right now, Zohran Mamdani has a monster lead in what amounts to a three-way race to become New York City's mayor.
Mamdani is the Democratic Party's nominee, Curtis Sliwa is the GOP's nominee, and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is running as an independent, with Mayor Eric Adams having just dropped out of the race.
This contest will surely tighten up as Election Day nears, but Sliwa needs to go if Cuomo is to have any chance, and there is now some rather significant pressure that could lead to him dropping out to clear the way for a head-to-head battle.
Adams only recently dropped out of contention, so we really don’t have polling that reflects the current numbers. That is something I am going to want to see before making a true assessment of how much his leaving the race will impact its outcome.
Prior to his departure, however, Adams was getting around 11% support, but Mamdani was leading Cuomo by more than 20 points overall.
Adams has not announced who he will back in the race, but I doubt it will be Sliwa, since the Republican barely has any support and no realistic chance to win the election.
If Cuomo can capture most of Adams’ supporters, he would be within about 10 points of Mamdani, and that makes a win in this race a bit more realistic, but only if Sliwa can be convinced to drop out.
Little by little, more of Mamdani’s radical agenda is being exposed, and one of his plans for the city caused an uproar this week.
His campaign announced that if elected, Mamdani would end New York’s “gifted” program for students, which is not sitting well with a lot of parents.
Cuomo pounced on the news, stating, “That program is the one program that allows extraordinary students to actually excel.”
He continued, “You take away gifted and talented programs, the one possibility that your child might get a really first-class education in public schools goes with it.”
We are starting to get a much better picture of where Donald Trump will stand, as former Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s top allies are now backing Cuomo in the race, and I just don’t see that happening without input from the president.
Joe Lhota, Giuliani’s former deputy mayor, stated, "It’s a choice between a proven manager, a socialist, and a fruit loop. Of course I’m going to be with Andrew.”
Anthony Carbonetti, Giuliani’s former chief of staff and a senior adviser to his 2008 presidential campaign, noted that the math is just not there for Sliwa, so he will be backing Cuomo as well.
If they can get Sliwa to drop out and throw his support behind Cuomo, this becomes a coin-flip race. I think Mamdani would still be holding a lead heading into the election, but it will tighten up significantly. But, if that is going to happen, it needs to happen soon so that voters are aware of the changes and that they can be reflected in early voting. If Sliwa stays in the race, Mamdani wins easily. If that happens, the GOP has nobody to blame but itself for not taking this race seriously and putting a far better candidate up during its primary process.
