Gov. Gavin Newsom's grip on the 2028 Democratic presidential frontrunner lane is slipping fast, with a new poll placing him third behind Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, and a rising Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now tied with him.
A Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted August 25 through September 1, put former Vice President Harris at 17 percent, former Transportation Secretary Buttigieg at 16 percent, and Newsom at just 14 percent, a sharp fall for a governor who led the pack in a Yahoo/YouGov poll as recently as February. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York matched Newsom's 14 percent. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona trailed at 10 percent.
The margin of error sits at plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, meaning the top four candidates are statistically bunched. But the trajectory matters more than any single snapshot. Newsom has moved in one direction since February, down, while his rivals have moved the other way.
Buttigieg's rise is not happening by accident. Since leaving the Biden cabinet, he has already visited three early primary states, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa, and leads a separate University of New Hampshire poll with 20 percent support among Granite State Democratic primary voters, Fox News reported. Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez tied for second in that New Hampshire survey at 15 percent, with Harris and Kelly at 10 percent each.
Buttigieg told reporters:
"Obviously, it feels good to be well received."
That is the kind of understatement a candidate makes when the numbers are moving his way and he wants to look modest about it. Buttigieg is doing the retail work, showing up in early states, shaking hands, building name recognition in the places that actually vote first. Newsom, by contrast, has been running a national media strategy heavy on cable news appearances and book tours but lighter on the early-state ground game that historically decides primaries.
Kelly, too, is making early moves. The Arizona senator has been visiting early voting states and raising his national profile, though his 10 percent in the Bowling Green poll suggests he still has a long climb.
Newsom's most immediate obstacle may be his fellow Californian. Harris, who lost the 2024 presidential race and ran unsuccessfully in the 2020 primary, now leads the Bowling Green poll at 17 percent. She has not ruled out a third presidential bid, and Newsom knows what that would mean for him.
He told CNN this week that he would not launch a White House campaign if Harris enters the race, citing what he called "mutually assured destruction", the recognition that two major California Democrats splitting the state's donor base, political infrastructure, and delegate haul would likely doom both candidacies.
That framing is revealing. Newsom is not deferring to Harris out of loyalty or admiration. He is describing a strategic calculation: two Californians cannot both survive a national primary. The question is whether Harris, who has now lost two presidential campaigns, actually runs, or whether Newsom is using her as a convenient excuse to keep his options open without committing.
A UC Berkeley/Politico poll painted a different picture within California itself. That survey showed Newsom leading Harris 28 percent to 14 percent among the state's own Democratic primary voters, the Washington Examiner reported. Harris's support in the Berkeley poll actually dropped from 19 percent in a prior survey, while Newsom's inched up from 25 to 28 percent. Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg trailed with 12 and 11 percent, respectively.
So Newsom dominates Harris at home but trails her nationally. That gap tells a story about the limits of a California-centric political brand in a national Democratic primary where voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina may want something different.
Ocasio-Cortez's rise to 14 percent, tied with a sitting governor who has spent years positioning himself for this race, is the number that should worry Newsom most. She has not declared a candidacy. She has not visited early states. She said in an August interview that she "hasn't ruled out the possibility" of running in 2028 but that her focus is on winning the 2026 midterms.
In other words, she matched Newsom's number while barely trying. That is not a compliment to Ocasio-Cortez's campaign operation, she does not have one yet. It is an indictment of Newsom's. A governor with national name recognition, a massive fundraising apparatus, and years of deliberate presidential positioning should not be tied with a House member who is publicly focused on a different election.
One veteran Democratic strategist, speaking anonymously, offered a blunter assessment of Ocasio-Cortez's readiness, telling Fox News:
"It is abundantly clear that AOC is not ready for prime time given her remarks in Europe."
The comment referred to a gaffe at the Munich Security Conference that drew criticism from both Republicans and Democrats. Whether that incident dents her polling remains to be seen, but the fact that she is polling at Newsom's level despite such stumbles says more about his weakness than her strength.
Newsom's political operation has not been idle. He scored a significant win with Proposition 50 in California, a ballot measure that replaced independently drawn congressional maps with districts designed to help Democrats win five additional U.S. House seats. Newsom and his allies spent roughly $100 million on that campaign, collecting 1.2 million contributions, more than 100,000 of which came from outside California, the AP reported.
The governor framed the effort as resistance to the Trump administration:
"We stood tall and we stood firm in response to Donald Trump's recklessness. After poking the bear, this bear roared."
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said the move gave Newsom a "very strong profile" among party activists who want aggressive opposition. But the same AP report noted a critical problem: just over half of California's own voters said they would not want Newsom to run for president in 2028. About three in ten California Democrats said the same.
Spending $100 million on a redistricting fight and still failing to consolidate your home state's support is not the profile of a frontrunner. It is the profile of a candidate with deep pockets and shallow enthusiasm.
Newsom's broader vulnerabilities extend well beyond poll numbers. Federal subpoenas have targeted his travel nonprofit and personal spending as part of a widening Department of Justice probe, adding legal uncertainty to an already shaky political position.
The Bowling Green poll did not survey voters about Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, who has been polling favorably in other surveys and represents yet another potential entrant in what is shaping up to be a crowded and fractured Democratic field.
That crowding is the deeper problem for Democrats. The party's 2028 bench looks thinner than the number of candidates suggests. Harris has lost twice. Buttigieg has never won a statewide race. Ocasio-Cortez has never run outside a deep-blue New York district. Kelly is a first-term senator from a swing state. And Newsom carries the baggage of governing a state with persistent homelessness, soaring costs of living, and now a federal investigation shadowing his political future.
The guilty plea of former Newsom aide Dana Williamson has only deepened questions about the governor's inner circle and the ethical climate around his administration, the kind of issue that opposition researchers in a presidential primary will not leave alone.
Newsom told the Washington Examiner he would be "happy to step aside" if a viable candidate he supports starts running. That is the language of a politician leaving himself an exit, not a candidate with the fire to fight through a five-way primary against rivals who are gaining ground while he loses it.
The New York Post reached out to the offices of Harris, Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, and Kelly for comment on the Bowling Green poll. None provided an immediate response.
That silence is standard for early polling stories, but the numbers speak loudly enough. Newsom went from leading the Democratic field in February to a third-place tie in September. His rivals are building early-state operations, raising their profiles, and, in Ocasio-Cortez's case, matching him without even formally entering the race.
Meanwhile, questions about Newsom's personal financial interests and the federal probe into his political operation continue to accumulate. None of that is fatal on its own. But combined with sliding poll numbers and lukewarm support even in his home state, the picture is one of a candidacy losing altitude before it ever officially takes off.
Democratic voters are telling pollsters they want something other than Gavin Newsom. The governor can spend another $100 million trying to change their minds, or he can listen.
