Republican Senate nominee Michele Tafoya is polling within striking distance of Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a rare bright spot for the GOP on an otherwise grim midterm map.
The Daily Caller reported that Flanagan leads by an average of just 1.6 points, with RealClearPolling having rated the Minnesota Senate race a “Toss Up” in September even as other forecasters remain cautious.
Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate since former Sen. Norm Coleman left office in 2009. Kamala Harris carried the state 51.1% to 46.9% over Donald Trump in 2024. On paper, this should be comfortable Democratic ground. The fraud scandals tied to the Walz-Flanagan years are why it is not.
Tafoya, a former NBC Sports sideline reporter with four Sports Emmy Awards, five Super Bowls, and 327 NFL games on her résumé, has built her campaign around accountability for those scandals. Flanagan, the Democratic lieutenant governor and longtime partner in Gov. Tim Walz’s administration, is defending that record in real time.
The Justice Department charged 80 suspects with stealing around $250 million from Feeding Our Future, a program that was supposed to provide meals for low-income children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Separate DOJ figures cited in the reporting put more than $90 million in alleged theft from Medicaid and child care programs, including $46.6 million tied to autism services, $22 million in individualized home supports, and $15.7 million in housing stabilization services.
Fraud losses from state programs have been described as running since 2018. Walz dropped his 2026 gubernatorial reelection bid in January after backlash over the scandal. Reporting has also described senior Minnesota officials allegedly hiring outside investigators in an effort to silence whistleblowers around social-services fraud.
Tafoya’s campaign put the contrast in blunt terms.
The Tafoya campaign told the Daily Caller News Foundation:
"Michele’s common sense message of ending fraud and holding fraudsters accountable is resonating with Minnesotans. During Peggy Flanagan’s eight years as lieutenant governor, billions of our tax dollars were stolen, violent gang activity increased, and test scores declined. Peggy Flanagan has already shown Minnesotans she is incapable of leadership. Next month, Minnesota voters will send her a pink slip."
Flanagan’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on whether the fraud scandal could cost her the election.
Tafoya’s campaign site lists fraud as a top priority. Her plan calls for deporting any immigrant convicted of fraud in the United States, tough mandatory sentencing to federal prison, and stripping federal funding from states that refuse anti-fraud controls or basic audit practices.
Flanagan’s site, by contrast, does not mention fraud. It calls for ending corruption, passing Medicare for All, and ending Trump’s mass deportation policy.
That gap matters in a state where taxpayers watched large-scale theft cases pile up while the same leadership team stayed in power. Minnesota also ranks 44th overall on the Tax Foundation’s state tax competitiveness index, another pressure point for voters already angry about waste.
Public polling has kept the race close enough for RealClearPolling’s “Toss Up” label. Cook Political Report rates it “likely Democrat” and has been open about its doubts.
Cook Political Report wrote:
"We’re skeptical of some public polling that has shown the race close, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has only just now started spending after a brutal Democratic primary. Former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya has an interesting profile, and national GOP sources maintain that voters’ anger over the state’s widespread fraud scandal will stick to Flanagan. But given the economy and the state’s ICE raids, this is a difficult climate to try to make a major play in a state Kamala Harris won."
Walz’s own numbers help explain why Republicans smell blood in the water on accountability, if not yet on the Electoral College math. A June Star Tribune/KARE 11/Hubbard School poll put his approval at 39% and disapproval at 53%. An August KSTP survey found 39% of Minnesotans strongly disapproved of Walz, against 17% who strongly approved.
Immigration enforcement has added another layer. ICE raids in Minnesota became a flashpoint, and the reporting states that two protesters, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were killed by immigration agents amid related unrest. Cook cited those raids alongside the economy as reasons the climate remains hard for a Republican pickup.
Federal Election Commission records show Tafoya raised $5.3 million between Jan. 1, 2025, and July 22. Flanagan raised more than $6.5 million in the same window. Tafoya also received $230,000 from Republican PACs and committees, notable because those groups typically avoid heavy spending on blue-state candidates.
National Republicans have shifted resources toward races in Texas, Kansas, and Iowa while cutting back in North Carolina, another sign the map looks difficult. In that company, a former sideline reporter staying within two points of a sitting Democratic lieutenant governor in Minnesota stands out.
Other races underscore the broader problem for the GOP. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton trailed Democrat James Talarico by 2.8 points in RealClearPolling averages, in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1993. In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall was neck-and-neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton after reports he had sued 700 patients over unpaid medical bills from his time as an OB-GYN. Oregon’s governor’s race had Republican Christine Drazan essentially tied with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper held a solid lead over Republican Michael Whatley.
Tafoya and Flanagan are set to debate on Oct. 16. That forum will test whether Flanagan can finally answer for the fraud years, or whether she continues to talk past them.
Flanagan has publicly emphasized inclusion of Minnesota’s Somali community. In a December 2025 social media post highlighted in the coverage, she said, “I am incredibly clear that the Somali community is part of the fabric of the state of Minnesota!” The Justice Department cases involving Feeding Our Future and related Medicaid and child-care fraud have made accountability, not slogans, the live issue for many voters.
Affordability sits at the top of the 2026 midterm issue list. In Minnesota, affordability now includes a simple question: who let hundreds of millions in public money walk out the door, and who is willing to stop it.
Democrats still hold the structural edge in a state that has not elected a Republican senator in more than fifteen years. A close race under those conditions is not a polling quirk. It is a verdict on leaders who treated fraud as someone else’s problem until the Justice Department showed up.
