I have been waiting patiently for polling in the aftermath of Eric Adams' exit from the New York City mayoral race, and we finally have some numbers.
The contest has tightened up, but Zohran Mamdani still holds a significant lead.
Having said that, there is still hope that former Gov. Andrew Cuomo can beat Mamdani, but we need the stars to align perfectly, and some of them have already started to move into place.
Mamdani did not win any fans in the Jewish community when he issued a statement on the anniversary of the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7.
After calling out Hamas for its “atrocities,” he then blistered Israel for having “launched a genocidal war.” It is a completely unfair and ridiculous accusation to make against a country that was responding to an act of war against its people.
After the United States was attacked at Pearl Harbor by the Japanese, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed, and as many as 250,000 people were killed to end the war. How many innocent people died outside of those events in WWI and WWII? The answer is more than 60 million, but again, that is the cost of war, right?
It’s not heartless to say it; it is just the reality of war. But when you look at the ratio of citizens to combatants, Israel’s efforts to protect civilians have been remarkably generous, shattering the ratios of other wars, yet somehow this is considered genocide by people like Mamdani, and I just cannot imagine that is sitting well with the Jewish community.
Before leaving the race, Adams had about 10% support in most polls, and it would appear that most of that support has now moved over to Cuomo, who was down close to 20 points in previous polling.
Cuomo is now down 13 points, with Mamdani holding steady at around 46% support. It appears that the voters who did not support Cuomo moved over to GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa, who is now sitting at 15%, so you can see how important it would be for Sliwa to drop out and send his voters to Cuomo. If Cuomo and Mamdani are head-to-head, this race becomes a coin flip.
Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow explained, “The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact.”
The point is that if Sliwa stays in this race, Mamdani gets an easy win. There is, however, one more thing that could impact this race outside of Sliwa deciding to abandon the fight and allow Cuomo to take on Mamdani heads up.
One of the energizing factors in this election cycle for progressives is the Israel-Hamas war. With a peace deal now in place, will that lower the energy level and have voters stay home on their couch on Election Day?
As we noted above, Mamdani has looked to villainize Israel every step of the way during this campaign, but the existence of a peace deal robs him of that energy, especially if Israel starts to pour humanitarian aid into the country and begins rebuilding Gaza.
Look, I am realistic here, but these are factors we need to consider, with the major variable being whether Sliwa drops out or stays in the race. If Sliwa truly wants to prevent a socialist from taking over a major American city, he has to drop out. If he remains firm on his stance and remains in the battle, as he is entitled to do, Mamdani wins, but we can't be so quick to blame Sliwa if that is the case.
Yes, Sliwa's continued presence in the race makes it a lock for Mamdani, but let’s not forget that the GOP as a party never took this contest seriously, and Sliwa went unopposed to claim his spot on the GOP ticket. If we had someone like Lee Zeldin on the ballot, Cuomo would be a non-factor, and the GOP would have a real chance of winning this election. I believe the party itself is ultimately to blame for this. Sliwa is just chasing his dream.
