A little something is going on in the House in the TX-23 race, where Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) is running for re-election.
Gonzales was likely a lock for the seat until a sexual misconduct scandal was lobbed at him.
Trump then endorsed him to try to take the heat off, but all of a sudden, Gonzales is now trailing in the latest polling.
These were not normal allegations made against Gonzales, as the alleged subject of his affections died by self-immolation.
After the death of 35-year-old Regina Santos-Aviles was announced, the romantic rumors started to fly, and Gonzales was adamant that they were false.
After months of silence, he stated, “The rumors are completely untruthful, and Regina’s family has asked for privacy.” He continued, “In politics, you have to have thick skin, and my name is on the door and so people are throwing rocks at me saying really nasty things, that’s where we get that.”
When his office had been asked about the death of his aide the previous month, it had responded, “Regina Aviles was a kind soul who had a lasting impact on her community, which she continued to serve until her untimely death.”
In December, three months after the death and a month after Gonzales broke his silence, Trump endorsed him.
Trump stated, "Tony knows the Wisdom and Courage that is required to Defend our Country, Support our Brave Military/Veterans, and Ensure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH."
The Texas congressman replied, "I look forward to working alongside President Trump to continue delivering for Texans and the American people."
Rather than help Gonzales, this may have hurt him, as Democrats went on the attack, linking Gonzales to other Trump associates who had been accused of sex crimes, as well as throwing Trump and the Epstein files into the fire.
Now we fast-forward to the latest Political Intelligence (PI) that was released, and it is not good news for Gonzales.
When voters were asked who they would support in the primary race, only 29% were behind Gonzales, with 33% backing his challenger, Brandon Herrera. Only 17% were locked into Gonzales, while 22% were locked into Herrera.
When the poll narrowed the race down to just Herrera and Gonzales, 34% went for the incumbent, while 43% backed the challenger, so, yeah, this is a real problem for the Trump-backed incumbent.
I don’t know if this is a case of the alleged affair hurting him or Trump fatigue settling in, but Herrera is ready to pounce. He has characterized Gonzales as “woke” while touting himself as a “pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump congressman.” I don’t want to jump the gun here, so I will wait until the next set of polls comes out, but if this poll is not an outlier, Gonzales very well could be seeing the end of his congressional career.
