Historically, after a party changeover in the White House, subsequent midterm elections do not go well for those in power.
This is generally due to the incoming administration promising the world and failing to deliver.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) now believes that the GOP will defy the odds, but this could be a race that is ultimately decided by Texas and California.
Johnson believes that Trump has already delivered on enough of his promises that the GOP will hold control of the House.
He stated, “I’m very excited about the midterm election. You know that we’re going to defy history when we grow the majority in the House because it’s only twice in the last 90 years that a sitting president has picked up seats for his party in that first election cycle, but we’re going to do it this time."
Johnson continued, “We have a very favorable map, regardless of how well this comes out, and we have policies."
The speaker added, “We’re delivering on our promises for the people, and that’s going to make all the difference.”
Texas is redrawing its congressional lines, and if approved, the plan would crush Democrats.
This is blatant gerrymandering, but it is something that regularly takes place. Even though both sides deny doing it, I look at it as a wash.
The newly proposed lines in Texas, which is my home state, would likely result in Democrats losing as many as five House seats, which would go a long way to helping Johnson and the GOP hold the lower chamber.
Currently, Democrats hold 12 of the 38 seats in Congress allocated to Texas.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has stated that if Texas moves forward with its plan, he will gerrymander the maps in his own state as a counterbalance.
He stated, “If we don’t put a stake into the heart of this administration, there may not be an election in 2028. They’re not screwing around. We can’t afford to screw around either. We have got to fight fire with fire.”
As I have stated before, gerrymandering happens in every state, every time the census is updated, but both sides play innocent in their respective jurisdictions. I am not advocating for gerrymandering, but I am saying that it is akin to blood doping in the Tour de France... everyone does it.
Currently, the GOP holds only nine seats of the 43 allocated to California in the House, so it would appear that the Texas plan could have a bigger impact on this election if put into place. I suspect, however, that both proposed maps would be litigated, so I really don’t see either of them taking effect before the 2026 midterm races.
