This has been a very interesting week for the Trump administration in terms of the jobs report.
So far, the tariff war has not really impacted consumer pricing, and many economists are stunned at how well the economy is doing amid that battle between Trump and our trading partners.
On the other hand, a new jobs report came out with some rather significant adjustments that could give everyone pause for concern.
While the jobs report is not the sole factor in predicting the future of the economy, it is a major contributor.
Typically, when we see strong job numbers, it means the economy is expanding.
On the flip side, when we see declining job numbers, we see less consumer spending and a downward trend in the trajectory of our economy.
The Trump administration has been a bit of an enigma on this front, especially after adjustments were just announced.
Trump has been at war with the Fed, specifically chair Jerome Powell, over his hesitancy to lower interest rates.
Now, a report came out this morning showing that job numbers were grossly overreported for the last two months, a scenario that is ringing recession warning bells.
In July, there were only 73,000 jobs added, about 25% fewere than were expected, but that is not the worst of it.
June’s report showed 147,000 jobs added, but the adjusted number was only 14,000. The May estimate was also revised from 144,000 down to 19,000, cutting a total of 258,000 jobs over the last two months from the original reports.
The interesting aspect of this is that while job numbers were adjusted down, raising concerns, the economy itself continues to soar, which may show that the job numbers are more a reflection of Trump’s government workforce cuts than anything else.
For instance, economist E.J. Antoni stated, “This GDP report, I mean, really, is an absolute blockbuster. It completely defies expectation. It is not only a good headline number, it has good internals, as well.”
Job Creators Network CEP Alfredo Ortiz added, “The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 3% in the second quarter of the year -- yet another data point that supports an interest rate cut by the Fed. Trump’s three-legged stool is working: balancing trade, cutting taxes, and slashing regulations are creating an economic boom.”
If you ask me if I am concerned about the job numbers, I would say that I 100% am, but there is no denying the GDP reports, as well as the fact that tariffs have not had the impact on consumer pricing they have been fearmongering to the American people. One way or another, this will all play out over the next three months, and how it does will likely dictate which party takes the 2026 midterm elections.
