Over the last few days, there has been significant back and forth related to the damage assessment of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A “low confidence” report was leaked to the media, which stated that two of the facilities were likely still operational, even though the entrances had been sealed.

Iran’s Supreme Leader had also stated that the damage was minimal, but Iran’s FM is now telling a far different story.

Severely damaged

As I noted above, an early report that was leaked had the media pushing the narrative that the complete obliteration Trump was claiming was simply not true.

The administration then clarified that the report was premature and labeled as “low confidence,” as the full assessment had yet to be completed.

Several days later, our intelligence agencies, Iranian officials, and Israeli officials all seemed to agree that the strike was successful, and it had “severely damaged” the facilities in question.

John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, stated, “This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.”

The denial

Iran’s Supreme Leader pushed back on the reports, claiming that the United States had “achieved nothing” from the attacks.

He posted to X, “My congratulations on our dear Iran’s victory over the US regime. The US regime entered the war directly because it felt that if it didn’t, the Zionist regime would be completely destroyed. It entered the war in an effort to save that regime but achieved nothing.”

In a secondary post, he added, “The Islamic Republic emerged victorious and, in return, delivered a hard slap to America’s face.”

Now, most considered this nothing more than bravado, as the attacks were clearly effective, and that was proven to be true when Iran’s Foreign Minister came forward.

It was effective

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi may not have much time left on this earth once the Supreme Leader sees his comments rebutting his claims about the strike.

Araghchi told the Associated Press, “These centrifuges are no longer operational,” further stating, “the level of damage is high, and it’s serious damage.”

At this point, the only question remaining is if Iran was able to remove the enriched uranium from the facilities before the strike, as has been reported (Sec. Hegseth has refuted these claims, stating he has yet to see any intelligence regarding movement before the strikes).

The pictures tell the story here, as these facilities were clearly damaged significantly, but my major concern at this point is the uranium. I think we need to dial in all focus on that to ensure that the uranium was not moved. And if it was, then we need to consider our next actions to ensure that Iran cannot move forward with its nuclear program.