There was a time when it looked like Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) might have a chance to unseat New York Gov. Kathy Hochul from the governor’s mansion, but that opportunity now appears to have passed.
While Donald Trump made serious inroads in New York during the 2024 cycle, the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor in New York City seems to have shown that the Big Apple and the Empire State have again made a hard lunge to the left.
The shift has been so significant that even though Hochul is polling badly in terms of the broader electorate, she still holds an overwhelming lead against anyone from the GOP in the upcoming election cycle.
There was a lot of anticipation about Stefanik running for governor leading into the 2025 election cycle, but she played her cards close to the vest until after voting was complete.
Once the election was over, everyone was anticipating an announcement from Stefanik indicating that she planned to challenge Hochul in 2026.
The buildup to her decision was significant, largely because of a poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute that claimed Stefanik was holding a 43-42 lead over Hochul.
This poll defied every survey taken before it, which had all shown Hochul with a massive lead. Speculation was that the poll was purposely weighted in Stefanik’s favor to accompany -- and bolster -- her campaign announcement.
The fact that Hochul endorsed socialist Mamdani in his mayoral bid only created more urgency from a conservative perspective to have a solid GOP challenger to go up against Hochul, and, as anticipated, Stefanik answered the call.
Her announcement video stated, “The Empire State has fallen. And Kathy Hochul’s failed policies are to blame.”
At the time, it was assumed that with Trump endorsing Stefanik, nobody else within the party would dare to challenge her.
Ed Cox, the chairman of the state Republican Party, boldly predicted, “There will not be a Republican primary and a year from now, Elise will lead our team to victory over Kathy Hochul, end one-party Democrat rule, and make New York affordable again.”
Make no mistake about it, New York voters do not like Hochul, as a recent Sienna Research Institute poll found that 48% of voters would prefer someone else to run as the Democrat Party's nominee.
However, the poll also found that 52% of voters would support Hochul against Stefanik, who only registered 32% support. This is in line with other polling I had seen before the release of the Manhattan Institute survey referenced above.
Not only that, but Stefanik is now going to have to spend money in the primary race, as Bruce Blakeman, a Republican county official from Long Island, just announced that he is launching a bid for governor as well.
I don’t think that Blakeman has the sort of public profile needed to truly challenge Stefanik, but she will still have to spend money she did not anticipate to beat him in the primary, making her task even more difficult in the general election. I wish I had better news on this front, but it does appear that the zombie voters are back, and they will pull the lever based solely on the letter next to Hochul’s name rather than on her actual record.
