As soon as the 2024 election was over, polls were flying to figure out the preferred candidate of the Democratic Party for the 2028 presidential contest.
Kamala Harris, by far, appeared to be the choice. However, after her loss to Donald Trump, she hid away for months, only to surface and announce that she would not be running to become governor of California, even though she was the frontrunner without even having announced.
Harris appeared to be clearing the decks to run for the White House again in 2028, but if she does, she now has a lot of ground to make up.
About two weeks after the 2024 presidential election was completed, the first run of polls for 2028 started to emerge.
Harris was the overwhelming favorite, and it was not even close.
Harris led the field with 41% support, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom in second, but sitting at only 8%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was several places behind, sitting at 6%. Very telling was the rather large number of undecided voters, many of whom certainly had enough of Harris.
Things would change rather quickly, however, once Harris poked her head back up.
As we noted above, Harris was more or less out of sight, out of mind right after the election, only recently emerging to announce that she would not be running for governor.
Harris trashed the system, then stated she wanted to tour the country to talk to everyday Americans to find a solution for how the nation should move forward.
Her words fell on deaf ears, as she has been getting obliterated in polls.
In a recent national poll, Harris fell to 21.1% support, with Buttigieg now on her heels and garnering 17.4%. Newsom came in at 12.7%, and AOC climbed to 11.9%. In the latest California-specific poll, Harris was actually trailing Buttigieg and Newsom, which is stunning considering that it is her home state.
I have said before that if Harris cannot win in California, where people know her best, she cannot win nationwide.
Well, Emerson College polled Californians last week, and Harris is tanking in a big way, dropping down to third overall. As we expected, Newsom has taken the lead at 23%, with Buttigieg right on his heels at 17%. Harris dropped to third, polling at only 11%, with AOC right behind her at 9%.
I want to be clear, I still do not think the eventual nominee has been identified yet, and we may not hear anything until after the 2026 election cycle has been completed. I will say this, however. I don’t think AOC will run for president until after she secures a seat in the Senate, where she could mount a presidential campaign and not lose her congressional seat by running in an off-year (remember, Senate seats only come up for election every six years, whereas she would likely have to give up her House seat to run for the White House).
I do think Newsom will be in the mix, as will Buttigieg. But I fully expect someone like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro to gain momentum, and my dark horse remains Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), someone I believe to be the most dangerous of all. One thing seems certain, and that is that the nominee will not be Kamala Harris.
