After she was thoroughly embarrassed in the 2024 presidential election, everyone was expecting former Vice President Kamala Harris to run for governor in California.
It seemed like a logical step to help revive her career.
Harris, however, has decided to forego the election, apparently lining herself up to make another run at the White House in 2028.
If Harris had run for governor, it would have likely been a walkover election for her.
Without even announcing her candidacy, she marshaled a double-digit lead in a very crowded field.
In the last poll, Harris was leading at 24%, while Rick Caruso was in second with only 9%. In generic polling, Harris was up 41-29% over any Republican. So as long as she made it out of the primary, she was likely to dominate the race.
Not everything was strawberries and whipped cream for Harris, however, as 40% of voters polled for the Democrat primary race were undecided as to their candidate of choice, which is what may have scared Harris away from running.
On Wednesday, news broke that Harris decided not to run in the election, and I have to admit, I was floored. I really thought she would run for governor, serve two terms, then take another shot at the White House.
Instead, she said, "For now, my leadership -- and public service -- will not be in elected office."
That statement tells you everything that is wrong with Harris and her idea of what is good for our country.
We don’t elect leaders in this country; we elect representation. Sadly, most elected officials believe we need a leash rather than a voice. Republicans often make similar statements, and I call them out on them as well. And I say this about the presidency also… while a president makes leadership decisions, overall, their job is to represent the will of the people, not to lead them. It is something far too many people in this country have forgotten.
So, at this point, my guess is that Harris is hoping to keep her schedule clear for the 2028 election, but that may not be as easy as most people think, given the debacle that took place in 2024 (and let’s not forget her failings in the 2020 election cycle).
Looking at the most recent polls, the top two Democrat candidates for 2028 Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. In June and July polling, Harris had a double-digit lead in two surveys, while Buttigieg enjoyed a 3% lead in the Emerson College poll. Current Gov. Gavin Newsom is consistently behind the two of them in every poll, but he is gaining.
My guess here is that Harris is banking on the country being so fed up with Trump after four years, that there is no way Vance will be elected president, making 2028 her best chance to win the White House.
I think the 2026 midterm elections will give us a much better idea of how the country feels about Trump. Historically, if the White House changes parties, the following midterm cycle is a bloodbath for the party in charge. So, if the Dems take back the House, we should be very concerned about Vance’s chances of winning in 2028. However, if Republicans manage to hold control of the lower chamber, I think it bodes well that we can win the White House again in 2028 and keep the momentum rolling for the agenda Trump puts in place.
