Well, the results are in for the seat vacated by former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), and it was a good night for the GOP. Not a great night, mind you, but a good night.
Matt Van Epps is your new Rep.-elect for TN-7, with a comfortable winning margin of nearly nine points.
There is a lot to look at here, so let’s get to it.
With 99% of the votes counted, Van Epps is sitting at 53.9% to Aftyn Behn’s 45%. So, it is not quite the 10% win that I wanted to see at a minimum, but it is still a healthy margin.
After notching the win, Van Epps stated, "This race was bigger than just one campaign.”
He continued, "It represented a defining moment for Tennessee and for the direction of the country."
Behn took the loss well, as I don’t think she really ever expected to win. She also noted, "I think the electorate is shifting to accept a candidate like me that has a progressive track record." I think she is right on that note, which I will get more into in just a second.
One of the main reasons Van Epps won this seat was because Republicans did not sit home, realizing just how important this election was for the party.
Last week, polling had Behn within two points of Van Epps, and we tried to create as much urgency about the election as we possibly could. Even though a lot of people were downplaying it, I wanted people to take this as a serious threat, and it worked.
Van Epps also made note of the situation, commenting that there was a “great turnout for us” in the election.
And he is right, but there are still lots of warning signs to be heeded here, and anyone pretending anything differently, to put it bluntly, is either lying or has no clue how to read polls and political momentum.
After the election was over, one House Republican, who did not want to be identified, stated, “Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle. Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”
That is a realistic take here when you look at the history of this race. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the state by nearly 30 points over Kamala Harris, and Green won his last election by 21.4 points, so this win came in at less than half that margin.
I am already seeing conservative writers downplay the numbers, such as Natalia Sandoval on the Daily Caller, putting out a piece titled, “You Would Think Tennessee’s Special Election Was The One To Win It All.” It was not the one to win it all, but it is clearly a measuring stick for the upcoming cycle, and the GOP is in trouble right now, whether people want to admit it or not. It's not fearmongering on my part, but rather a rallying cry for party leadership to create some urgency.
When I reported on this election prior to Tuesday, I stated that anything less than a 10-point win would be concerning to me, and we were indeed under that number. Now, it is not too late, but the GOP has to start making some big moves to swing momentum back in its favor. Trump is already being aggressive on this front, but I want to see a lot more from the RNC in presenting new candidates to voters. We can fix this, but the party has to start now.
