The GOP, already facing a razor-thin majority, could soon be faced with rampant quiet quitting, which could render Trump powerless over the final six months of the year.
Over the next three months, most states will have completed their primary races, and inevitably, some incumbents will lose those races.
Leadership now fears that any members losing their primary races could wind up leaving early, or quiet quitting, leaving Republicans with a majority in name only.
I have given the history lesson on midterm losses after a change in power a dozen times, so I won’t rehash that again.
While history does say the GOP will struggle, the solace is that there are only about 20 seats that are considered truly at risk for Republicans, barring unforeseen upsets.
However, nearly three dozen Republicans have announced they will be leaving at the end of the term, which puts the GOP at risk of defending a seat without a true incumbent, so that risk factor goes up considerably.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) barely has a vote to spare at this point, so you can see how anyone leaving early becomes a problem.
According to the most recent Cook Political Report, there are 18 true battleground seats in this election, with 14 of them currently being held by Republicans.
There are 15 seats held by the GOP where Trump won the district by less than five points. With Trump’s current favorability ratings, all of those seats are now at risk.
Swing Left has targeted a total of 19 seats that it sees as flippable in this election.
Then there is the Trump factor, as the president has targeted several incumbents, most notably Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), hoping to replace him with a MAGA candidate in a state that does not really fully support a MAGA agenda.
We will inevitably see some incumbents removed, and many of them would prefer to move on to the private sector as quickly as possible rather than wait around and watch the ship sink.
There are also House members who aspire to higher office, and if they lose their primary races, they have zero incentive to stick around unless they plan on running for office again.
One House Republican told Fox News, "It's a real problem. Is one of them going to be gone for his runoff? Will another not come back at all because he's mad? Is another one not going to come back because he lost?"
If this fear becomes a reality, Johnson will have effectively lost his majority. Add that to the fact that Trump has threatened to block all legislation until the SAVE Act is passed, and we could literally not see another piece of legislation passed through Congress for the remainder of this term.
