Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied at 49 percent in a new Fox News poll of Maine voters, leaving a pivotal Senate race wide open weeks before Election Day.
The survey of Maine likely voters finds the Republican incumbent and her Democratic challenger locked at 49% apiece, a dead heat that keeps Democrats’ hopes of flipping the seat alive. Fox News fielded the poll October 16-20, 2026, with all interviews completed after the candidates’ October 15 debate.
Collins is seeking a sixth term after first winning the seat about three decades ago. She is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024, by 7 points. In 2020 she won by nearly 9 points.
Democrats see Maine as a must-win if they want to take control of the U.S. Senate. That fight has already drawn unusual cross-party attention, including when Joe Manchin defied Schumer by stumping for Collins on the trail.
Beneath the headline tie, the poll shows two different coalitions. Independents favor Collins by 13 points. Rural voters back her by 7 points. A slim majority of Mainers plan to vote on Election Day, and those voters favor Collins by 12 points.
Jackson leads among college-degree voters by 23 points and among suburban voters by 18 points. Women support him by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points; those 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3.
Party loyalty is firm on both sides. Nine in 10 of each candidate’s party faithful are sticking with their nominee. Favorability is underwater for both: Collins sits at 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable, while Jackson is at 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable.
Concerns cut both ways. Fifty-three percent of voters say they worry Collins votes with Trump too much. Forty-six percent say they worry Jackson is too liberal. Those numbers help explain why the race remains a pure toss-up even after years of Collins holding the seat.
Democrats hold a clear edge in intensity. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election, compared with 61% of Republicans, an 18-point enthusiasm advantage. Jackson leads by 16 points among that highly engaged group and is up 4 points among voters who say they are “certain” to vote.
He also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by 40 points. Collins’s path still runs through Election Day voters and the rural, non-college base that powered her past wins. In 2020 she carried rural and non-college voters by 18 points each; those margins are tighter now.
Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, the Democratic firm that partners with Republican pollster Daron Shaw on the Fox News Poll, put the opening in plain terms.
"Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage. Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line."
Shaw flagged the rural challenge for Republicans nationwide and in Maine specifically.
"Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception. GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas."
That rural math is why Collins’s 7-point edge there matters, and why it may not be enough without stronger turnout. Cross-party support has already become part of the story, as when Manchin crossed party lines to back her over the Democratic nominee.
Trump’s job rating in the poll stands at 37% approve and 62% disapprove, with 54% strongly disapproving. More than 6 in 10 disapprove overall, including 2 in 10 Republicans. Only 12% of Maine voters say their family is better off financially than two years ago.
On control of the Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led chamber and 45% want Republicans to remain in charge. Almost all Jackson supporters, 96%, want Democratic control. Among Collins supporters, 89% want a GOP-led Senate, though 9% prefer Democratic leadership.
Vote certainty is high on both sides: 92% of Jackson supporters and 90% of Collins supporters say their minds are made up. The remaining soft edges are small, which is why the early-vote and Election Day splits loom so large.
Campaign friction has already spilled into public view. Jackson’s “shut up” remark aimed at Collins on “Hannity” became a flashpoint after a protester crashed their final debate, a moment covered when a Maine Democrat told Collins to shut up in the closing stretch.
The same survey finds Democrat Hannah Pingree leading Republican Bobby Charles 49% to 39% in the Maine governor’s race, with independent Rick Bennett at 9%. Pingree’s 10-point edge is clearer than the Senate deadlock.
Ticket-splitting shows up mainly on the Republican side. Jackson’s coalition sticks with Pingree almost unanimously; only 8% defect. Nearly one in five Collins supporters peel off, with 11% going to Bennett and 8% to Pingree.
Collins has tried to draw sharper contrasts on character and judgment, including when she delivered pointed remarks about Jackson’s personal life and temperament. Those attacks land in a race where both candidates already carry net-negative favorability.
The poll sampled 1,689 Maine registered voters drawn from the statewide voter file, 226 on landlines, 1,035 on cellphones, and 428 online after text, then modeled likely voters. The margin of sampling error is ±2 points among registered voters and ±2.5 points among the 1,514 likely voters. Subgroup results were shown only when the sample reached at least 100 respondents.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research jointly directed the survey for Fox News. For Collins, the path still runs through independents, rural towns, and Election Day ballots. For Jackson, it runs through enthusiasm, early votes, college-educated suburbs, and the hope that anti-Trump energy carries past his base.
A six-term senator who once outran her party by wide margins is now in a pure toss-up, and Democrats know exactly what that seat would mean for control of the Senate.
