Fox News Power Rankings now list six Senate seats where neither party holds an advantage heading into November, and Democrats' leftward lurch may be costing them ground with Black voters who once formed the party's most reliable base.
The latest rankings from Fox News lead political affairs specialist Rémy Numa moved both Michigan's and Texas's Senate contests into toss-up territory, bringing the total number of coin-flip Senate races to six. The shifts come as polling data reveals a stubborn pattern: Democratic candidates aligned with the party's progressive wing are underperforming with Black voters compared to Joe Biden's 2020 benchmarks, sometimes by double digits.
Just 69 percent of Black Americans now say they will support a Democrat in their congressional district, a figure 21 points below Biden's 2020 share. One in five Black Americans approves of President Trump. And in state after state, the Democratic Socialists of America brand is dragging on candidates who embrace it, only 36 percent of Black Americans view the DSA favorably, according to a Marquette Law School survey.
Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive tied to the DSA platform, won Michigan's August 4 Democratic Senate primary. But the victory came with a warning sign his party cannot afford to ignore: El-Sayed drew just 75 percent of Black voters in a Fox News poll, down 18 points from Biden's Black voter support in 2020. Primary maps showed him performing poorly in Black-majority areas like Detroit.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee and a seasoned campaigner, held 51 percent support in the same Fox survey, compared to El-Sayed's 47 percent. That gap falls within the margin of error, which is precisely why Fox moved the race to toss-up. Michigan's absentee voting begins September 24, giving both sides roughly six weeks to sharpen their case.
A quarter of Black voters in Michigan are not backing El-Sayed. For a party that has long treated Black support as a given, that erosion could prove decisive in a state where margins are razor-thin. Far-left candidates have swept Democratic primaries across the country this cycle, but winning a primary and winning a general election are two different problems.
El-Sayed has acknowledged his platform means voters would pay "a little bit more in taxes" regardless of income, a concession unlikely to help him with working-class voters in a general election.
Texas State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee, is averaging 48 percent across three recent polls and hit 51 percent in Fox's own survey. Republican Ken Paxton, who carries what Fox describes as a history of legal and personal issues, averages 46 percent. The race moved to toss-up.
Talarico is running roughly even with Biden's 2020 Black voter support, a notable exception to the pattern dragging down Democrats elsewhere. Fox notes that Talarico has a history of comments described as "woke," but voters so far say they are less concerned about those remarks. Whether that holds through a bruising fall campaign remains an open question.
The Texas governor's race also shifted. Gov. Greg Abbott, buoyed by fundraising strength and experience in close contests, sits at 49 percent in three summer polls. Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa trails at 46 percent. Fox moved the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, still favoring Abbott, but no longer a lock.
The softening of Black support is not confined to Michigan. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia is running 10 points behind Biden's 2020 Black voter support. North Carolina's Democratic Senate candidate trails Biden's Black voter benchmark by seven points. In Wisconsin, democratic socialist Francesca Hong underperformed in Milwaukee, a city with a large Black population.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a card-carrying DSA member, struggled with Black voters during his election last year. He has responded with what Fox describes as a "Black media blitz" to defend his agenda. A Siena College poll released in mid-August gave him a 69 percent favorability rating among New Yorkers overall, but that number papers over the specific weakness that cost him ground with Black communities in the first place.
Biden once thanked Black voters for delivering his 2020 victory. The coalition that carried him to the White House is fraying. Trump gained seven points with Black voters between 2020 and 2024, reaching 15 percent. He also gained six points with Hispanic voters, hitting 41 percent, and surged 10 points with young voters to 46 percent. Those gains helped put him back in the White House.
But the current political environment has shifted. Trump's overall approval rating is stuck in the 30s. A Marquette Law School survey found that only 21 percent of Americans approve of his handling of gas prices. Two-thirds of young Americans now disapprove of him, and 56 percent say they will back the Democrat in their district. Among Hispanics, 71 percent disapprove and 56 percent plan to vote Democratic.
Those numbers explain why Democrats believe they have an opening, and why recent polling has shown Republican struggles on the generic ballot. Democrats now lead by four points on the generic congressional ballot, a five-point swing from 2024 when Republicans held a one-point edge, as Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin reported in a previous Power Rankings segment.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats were expanding the Senate map to include Kansas and Mississippi. That claim came shortly after El-Sayed's Michigan primary victory, riding a wave of progressive enthusiasm. Fox moved Kansas from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton has emerged as a well-funded challenger to incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall.
The ambition is notable. Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024 and Mississippi by 23 points. Schumer is betting that a national anti-Trump environment can overcome structural Republican advantages in deep-red states. Fox's own rankings suggest skepticism is warranted, both states remain in Republican-leaning categories.
The Senate math overall remains tight. Fox projects a range where Democrats could end up with 53 seats or Republicans could hold with no net loss. Fox News contributor Karl Rove, breaking down the rankings on "America's Newsroom" with anchor Bill Hemmer, outlined four toss-up Senate races and evaluated 16 toss-up House seats.
Democrats need a net gain of just three House seats to break the Republican majority, AP News reported, a threshold that would establish a legislative counter to the administration's agenda for the final two years of Trump's term. But structural advantages may blunt the expected Democratic wave. Republican redistricting efforts could yield up to 14 additional favorable House seats compared to just six for Democrats, the Washington Examiner noted, creating a potential net GOP advantage of eight seats before a single ballot is cast.
Fourteen House Democrats currently represent districts Trump carried in 2024. Only three Republicans sit in districts won by Vice President Kamala Harris. That asymmetry gives Republicans far more offensive targets than Democrats can claim.
Minnesota's Republican establishment had a strong week. Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya won the party's Senate nomination, and state House Speaker Lisa Demuth became the Republican gubernatorial nominee. Demuth will face Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who Fox describes as a formidable opponent and who has criticized the state's handling of fraud involving government programs. Fox moved the Minnesota governor's race from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic, still favoring Democrats, but newly competitive.
Speaker Mike Johnson has been barnstorming 18 states to shore up the House majority, and competitive gubernatorial races in states like Minnesota could help drive Republican turnout down the ballot.
In Alaska, voters headed to the polls for top-four primaries in a gubernatorial race featuring 17 candidates and no incumbent. Former Democratic legislator Tom Begich, who has three relatives who served in Congress, and former Rep. Mary Peltola, now making a Senate push, have made the state competitive enough for Fox to move the governor's race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
The broader Senate landscape has shifted toward Democrats in recent forecasts, but Republicans still hold structural advantages that could prevent the kind of wipeout some analysts predict.
The central tension in these rankings is straightforward. Democrats are gaining ground nationally because Trump's approval numbers are weak and voters are unhappy about gas prices and the economy. But the party's progressive wing, its DSA-aligned candidates, its "woke" messaging, its promises of higher taxes for expanded government programs, is alienating the very voters Democrats need most.
Black voters are not switching to the Republican Party in large numbers. But they are staying home, or at least signaling that they might. When a quarter of Black voters in Michigan decline to back the Democratic Senate nominee, and when Black support nationally sits 21 points below Biden's 2020 levels, the party has a problem that no amount of generic-ballot advantage can automatically fix.
The DNC's own financial struggles heading into the final stretch compound the challenge. Enthusiasm without infrastructure, and ideology without coalition discipline, is a recipe for underperformance.
Democrats spent years telling Black voters they were the party's backbone. Now the backbone is asking what, exactly, it got in return, and the party's answer is a DSA membership card and a tax hike. Good luck with that in November.
