Trump adviser Dick Morris says Tuesday's Michigan Democratic Senate primary is a national test of whether progressive politics can survive outside deep-blue urban districts, and he's betting it can't.
Morris appeared on Newsmax's "Saturday Report" ahead of the August 4 primary and laid out a blunt forecast: if Abdul El-Sayed defeats Rep. Haley Stevens for the Democratic nomination, former Rep. Mike Rogers will cruise to a Senate pickup in a state Morris called "the quintessential swing state." The open seat belongs to Sen. Gary Peters, who announced he would not seek reelection.
A late-July poll commissioned by the Michigan Education Association and conducted by the Glengariff Group backs Morris's math. Rogers leads El-Sayed by 10 points in a hypothetical general-election matchup. Against Stevens, Rogers runs even. That gap is the whole argument: nominate the progressive, lose the seat.
Morris cast the primary as more than a state-level contest. He told Newsmax that progressive and democratic-socialist candidates have dominated recent congressional primaries, but only inside New York City. Michigan, he argued, is different ground.
"It's been dominant in New York, and the primaries that they had for Congress were all in New York. This will be the first time it really is tested in mainland America."
He went further, warning that "the virus of democratic socialism will escape New York City" if El-Sayed wins the nomination. The implication was plain: Democratic primary voters in a swing state choosing a progressive standard-bearer would confirm that the party's leftward drift is no longer confined to safe blue enclaves.
Rogers, the unopposed Republican in the race, narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan's 2024 Senate contest. A rematch-style general election against a well-known progressive opponent would give him a far wider lane than he had two years ago, at least if the Glengariff numbers hold.
Morris didn't stop at one state. He predicted that a Michigan pickup, combined with what he sees as a likely Republican gain in Maine, would shut the door on Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate majority.
"When you combine that seat with Maine, there's no chance for the Democrats. Then Texas, Iowa, and Ohio, all of which are Democrat targets to flip, will not flip."
His bottom line: Republicans "end up with 55 Republican senators, not 53." He added Georgia to the hold column and said flatly that the GOP "will keep the Senate and expand their margin."
That's an aggressive forecast. Democrats have targeted Texas, Iowa, and Ohio as potential flips, and at least one poll suggests the Texas race is competitive. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey conducted July 15, 17 of 1,048 likely voters found state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, leading Attorney General Ken Paxton 45 percent to 40 percent, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Morris dismissed the numbers. He said "the rumors of Paxton losing are wrong" and predicted the outcome "won't even be close."
Morris also took aim at a CNN poll conducted July 23, 27 that placed President Trump's job approval at 34 percent, described as matching his career low, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. Morris called the CNN survey "just biased."
He pointed instead to a late-June national survey of 1,000 likely voters by GOP pollster John McLaughlin, which put Trump's approval at 50 percent. Morris praised McLaughlin's track record as "always flawless" and said "voters do not disapprove of the Iran war", a reference to a conflict that has shaped recent political debate.
The 16-point gap between the two surveys is striking. CNN's poll sampled voters in late July; McLaughlin's was conducted roughly a month earlier. Methodological differences, including sample composition, question wording, and timing, could account for some of the spread. But Morris's position was unambiguous: the McLaughlin number reflects reality, and CNN's does not.
Morris summarized the broader pattern in one sentence: Democrats "have gone so far to the left that they can't possibly win another national election." Whether that holds up across a full cycle remains to be seen. But the Michigan primary offers a concrete, measurable data point.
If El-Sayed wins Tuesday and Rogers's polling lead holds into November, Morris will have called the shot months in advance. If Stevens wins and keeps the general election competitive, the argument that progressives are electoral poison outside safe districts gets harder to sustain.
Either way, the Democratic Party's internal fight over its ideological direction is no longer an abstract debate. It's on the ballot in a swing state, with a Senate seat on the line, and Republicans are watching with considerable interest.
When the other side keeps choosing candidates who can win primaries but not general elections, the smartest play is to stay out of the way and let them do it.
