Democratic candidates cleared 50 percent in new Texas and Alaska Senate polls, a warning for Republicans defending their narrow majority a month from Election Day.
The New York Post reported Saturday that a New York Times/Siena College survey put Democrats at or above the 50 percent line in two Republican-held seats long treated as safe ground.
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50 percent to 43 percent. The election is Nov. 3.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Fresh numbers in Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas added to the pressure on the GOP map.
The Texas result stood out. Talarico’s six-point edge came with a poll margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. A Marist College poll last week also had Talarico ahead by six points.
RealClearPolitics averages still showed a smaller Democratic edge than the Times/Siena figure. Even so, a Democrat at 51 percent in Texas is the kind of number that forces Republican strategists to spend time and money they would rather use elsewhere.
The same Times/Siena survey found President Donald Trump at 40 percent approve and 57 percent disapprove in Texas. Trump spoke last month at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas. Days after that event, a recording surfaced of Paxton telling conservative donors and lobbyists that “everybody’s numbers dropped.”
In Alaska, Peltola’s seven-point lead over Sullivan exceeded the margin of error cited for that race. Sullivan is an incumbent Republican. A double-digit-style gap this close to Election Day is not the position party leaders want in a seat they already hold.
Those two results landed alongside tighter contests that keep the majority math alive for both parties.
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49 percent to 46 percent. Husted was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Trump was set to visit Ohio to boost Husted hours after the survey’s release.
Iowa’s open seat was a one-point race. Rep. Ashley Hinson edged Democrat Josh Turek 48 percent to 47 percent. Trump carried Iowa with 56 percent of the vote in 2024. A near tie there this late is another problem for Republicans who expected clearer running room in the Midwest.
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton sat tied at 45 percent each. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in a century. That history did not stop the Senate Leadership Fund from moving money.
On Friday, the group affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune pulled $10 million out of the North Carolina Senate race and redirected it to Kansas. The stated aim was to protect the GOP majority. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper was leading Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly appeared on Fox News Live on Saturday and declined to rank individual contests, while backing Whatley.
Kelly said:
"I can’t comment on specific races, but the president’s incredibly proud of Michael Whatley. Of Course Michael Whatley was a big partner."
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson were tied 50-50 in the latest CBS News poll. Republicans are also trying to seize tossup Democratic-held seats in New Hampshire and Michigan.
In Michigan on Friday night, former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, called Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a “conman” and criticized his association with left-wing commentator Hasan Piker.
The map now runs from deep-red Texas and historically Republican Kansas to Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, and the Democratic-held tossups. Democrats above 50 percent in Texas and Alaska force Republicans to defend ground they once took for granted while still hunting for the seats they need to keep the chamber.
Majorities are kept by holding the states you are supposed to hold. These numbers say that work is not done.
