Playing the long game… that is what Donald Trump appears to be doing when it comes to rare earth minerals, which are the key to just about everything these days.
Without those minerals, you won’t have computer chips, and without those chips, most of the things we use today become little more than expensive pieces of junk.
Trump started this game when he notched a deal with Ukraine, and he just made more moves that will, hopefully, remove America's dependence on China for both the minerals and the finished products that use them. It sure looks like China underestimated Trump on this front.
When Ukraine was asking for more military aid earlier this year, Trump suggested a rare earth minerals deal valued at $500 billion as a way to repay the United States for past and future aid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially balked, but changes to the terms were made, and Zelensky eventually signed the deal.
We have rare earth minerals in our country, but mining them has been banned, at least for the most part, due to stringent environmental protection legislation.
The deal with Ukraine would allow the United States to once again be able to obtain these minerals without the help of the Chinese. It was a key to everything that was to follow.
Donald Trump, on his trip to Asia this week, is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, having already threatened 100% tariffs if things don’t go his way. Even so, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this weekend that 100% tariffs are “effectively off the table,” undermining Trump’s threat a bit.
On Monday, while traveling to Japan for the first leg of the trip, Trump stated in regard to talks with China, “I think we’re gonna have a successful transaction for both countries.” Trump would not go into further detail, explaining, “I don’t want to tell you what the understanding is, because what we understood yesterday or two days ago or even today is not going to be necessarily what it’s going to be in two days.”
While Trump has had some open brawls with President Xi, he has also made it very clear that he really does not want China as an enemy, once writing off his Asian counterpart's comments as the simple product of a “bad moment.”
One of the reasons China can act tough is that it believes it has significant leverage on this front, but Trump has been working diligently behind the scenes to neutralize it.
Over the course of several days this past week, Trump redid a trade agreement with Malaysia that will also impact mineral supplies. Then he did a deal with Thailand that will help with processing, thereby eliminating China from the picture, if need be. My guess is that is why China is blinking and wants to do a deal with Trump now. Better to take a hit than to lose all of the business from the United States.
Former Rep. Trey Gowdy just wrote an excellent piece for Fox News about this situation, writing, “Do not mistake diplomacy for weakness or discussion for a lack of resolve. Trump can make peace, level the playing field, stop intellectual property theft, punish currency manipulation and allow for healthy, fair competition, even among perceived opponents.”
Gowdy concluded, “The fact that someone seeks peace does not mean he isn’t preparing for a world without it. China would be wise to know that while democracy limits a person’s time in office, it does nothing to deter the speed with which actions can be taken to preserve that democracy.”
The shame of all this is that most people are missing the nuance of these deals, not realizing that Trump is setting our country up to be independent of our adversaries, even if we are still doing business with them. There is no need to cut China off completely as long as we have alternatives in case conflict breaks out. My preference would be to eliminate China from the trade picture, but I also realize that is an unreasonable expectation, as these trade deals can make all the difference when hostilities arise. China would be far less likely to strike a partner than it would be a country to which it has no economic ties. This is a master chess move by Trump for which the media and Democrats will never give him credit.
