We are starting to see maneuvering for the 2028 primary nod within the Democratic Party.
The only way a Democrat wins the next presidential election is to win back the moderate and independent voters lost by Joe Biden's administration and Kamala Harris' campaign.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has suddenly surged in polling, is now making that effort.
Buttigieg is the surprise leader in several Democratic Party primary polls as of late.
In previous Emerson survey of California voters, Buttigieg was the overall leader, with the state's own governor, Gavin Newsom, also making strides.
Harris has been shedding support from earlier levels, while Newsom has taken the lead. The most recent national poll conducted in June showed Buttigieg at 17%, followed by Harris at 12%, and Newsom at 12%.
When I saw that poll, I stated that I suspected Newsom was going to be the biggest mover, and that now seems to be the case, with the governor now up to 23% in California-specific polling, followed by Buttigieg at 17%, and Harris in third at 11%.
I believe Harris made a huge mistake by not running to become governor of California, as I believe that was a real opportunity for her to regain some traction rebuild her national political profile.
Harris really has no record to stand on, and she needed to have a successful full term in elected office, which is why I thought she would run for governor, then run again in 2029, likely to announce her presidential candidacy in the 2032 or 2036 race, depending upon how the 2028 race turned out.
My line of thinking has been confirmed by Harris’ massive drop in polling.
To be blunt, if Harris cannot win California, there is no way she can win the country. For all intents and purposes, her political career is dead right now. Of course, two years is a long time, and things could change, but what can she possibly do to shake this up?
Buttigieg had to make a splash because it is Newsom who is getting all the press right now, and the former Biden Cabinet member is doing just that.
The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor and Transportation secretary offered an olive branch of sorts to moderate voters, suggesting that Democrats would be wise to get behind Trump’s pro-family campaign, stating, "I think it's good policy.”
He continued, "I mean, if we're really serious about being pro-family, then we need to make sure that we support [IVF and fertility treatments]. And that means making sure whether it's a system of direct government support or whether it's ensuring that that's part of what you can get from private healthcare."
Most Democrats have fought Trump on every policy, so this is a big move by Buttigieg, clearly designed to separate him from the pack as a candidate who is willing to go across the aisle. So, now we sit and wait to see how much of an impact it has on polling. Right now, though, this appears to be a two-man race within the Democratic Party, and unless there is a serious shake-up, we just may see a Newsom-Buttigieg ticket in 2028.
