The recent redrawing of the Texas district maps and the Supreme Court's approval to put the maps into play for the 2026 cycle have had a rather significant butterfly effect.
If new reporting is accurate, Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-TX) district would no longer exist as it is currently drawn, so she would either have to run in a new district or take on a Republican candidate in a red one, which is not a scenario she would likely entertain.
If Crockett wants to remain in elected office, she could also run for Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) seat, which is up for re-election in 2026, and it now appears that is exactly what she is going to do.
After the aforementioned SCOTUS ruling allowing the maps' use was announced, Crockett, in part, stated, “While today’s decision from the Supreme Court is disappointing, it’s not shocking coming from a MAGA-influenced court. Here’s the bottom line: Texans are now being told to vote under maps that a panel of three federal judges -- right here in Texas -- said were drawn to weaken the voices of Black, Latino, and minority communities.”
She continued, “Those findings still stand. The Supreme Court simply pressed pause, allowing these maps to be used for the 2026 election cycle while the case continues.”
Her assessment on that front is correct, as the court found fault with the plaintiff’s arguments but, more importantly, it also found fault with the lower court’s reasoning for blocking the maps.
There is still a chance, a very good chance, the maps will be nullified after the 2026 cycle, but Dems have to live with the new district boundaries for now.
That being the case, Crockett has a decision to make; it appears that she would like to move up, not out.
During a recent interview on MS NOW, when asked about running for the Senate, she responded, "I am closer to yes than I am to no."
Crockett also reportedly huddled with the two leading Democrats in the race, James Talarico and Colin Allred.
In looking at polling. Crockett is pulling anywhere from 44% to 47%, with her best chance to win coming in a contest against Attorney General Ken Paxton (trailing by only two points). She is six points behind Cornyn and five points behind Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), but he is well behind Paxton and Cornyn in polling. Talarico has similar numbers to Crockett, while Allred is actually leading Paxton in some polls.
Allred, who formerly served in the U.S. House, had decided to drop out now that the rumors about Crockett awre running wild, stating, "l've come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlickers [Attorney General Ken Paxton, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, or Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas]. That's why l've made the difficult decision to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate."
“Bootlickers.” He can say that because he is a Democrat, but if a Republican said it, it would be the subject of the weekend media circuit. That aside. Allred is now going to run for office in the House again, leaving Crockett as the likely favorite to run against the winner of what will be an ugly primary race in the GOP.
My concern here is how close Crockett is in polling without having even announced (word here in Texas is that she will be announcing this evening). I would imagine she will get a tick up in polling if and when she does announce, so it will take a month or so for that to level off to give us a more realistic picture of where she stands.
This has put Texas in a no-win situation. If Crockett loses, we are going to be called racists who would not elect a black woman to office. And if she wins, well, we all know what happens to Texas if this mouthpiece takes a seat in the Senate. I have always stated that when a Texas Senate seat goes to a Democrat, it could be time for me to find a new home. That statement may soon be put to the test.
