The federal government shutdown is likely to crush one party and send the other to a midterm victory.
Polling on the shutdown itself is currently about even in terms of who gets the most blame, so we have to dig further into this to see who is really going to take the hit.
For me, the key metrics are Trump’s approval rating and each party's approval rating, both of which are falling in favor of Republicans right now. However, there are some whispers that could easily flip that around.
The departure of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) from being all-Trump, all the time, has been covered exhaustively here, which I believe has happened because she was snubbed for a Cabinet position in favor of the likes of RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.
Greene has pushed back against Trump on several issues since then, but her latest passion involves extending the subsidies for Obamacare.
This week, reports surfaced that she and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) got into it during a phone conversation over her refusal to push the party line. Green reportedly told House leadership in the GOP, "You guys need to get out of Washington, D.C., and go back to your districts and talk to real people, because real people are pissed. They expect us to do our legislative constitutional duty and not take marching orders from the political team at the White House."
I happen to agree with her on this issue, as I don’t think now is the time to negotiate overall reform for the subsidies. I very much believe that with open enrolment about to begin, we need to pass a package that will continue the subsidies for one year, then work on reforming Obamacare over the next 12 months, so it is not a wedge issue again. I don’t like Obamacare; I hate it, actually, but this is what we have to work with for now, like it or not, and we cannot penalize families in this country because Congress decided to wait until the last minute to address the situation. Put the bill on the floor and force the hand of Democrats… make them explain why they won’t extend tax cuts that they extended twice under Joe Biden.
The division is also creeping up in the Senate, as the idea of allowing more than 40 million people who rely on our food stamp program (SNAP) to go hungry is making people very uncomfortable. Among the Republicans pushing to have funding extended for SNAP is Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO).
Senator Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), however, has rejected the idea, stating, "This piecemeal approach, where you do one-off here, one-off there, to make it seem, you know, more politically palatable to somebody or less painful. That's just a wrong way to do this. There's just a simple way to do it is to pick up the bill on the desk of the Senate and give us five more Democrat votes to pass it."
Trump has also seen resistance from Republicans in the Senate to his push to increase tariffs on Brazil, with all the usual players blocking the measure. This included Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Thom Tillis (R-NC).
Vice President JD Vance was pressuring all Republicans to support the measure, stating, "To vote against that is to strip that incredible leverage from the president of the United States. I think it's a huge mistake and I know most of the people in there agree with me.”
While all this infighting is going on, the GOP is still crushing it with its net approval rating going up by 12% since the shutdown started, which is utterly shocking considering the history of shutdowns in this country.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten stated, “When we’re looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand, actually up two points. That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped. Come over to this side of the screen, look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress."
He continued, “It’s actually up five points since pre-shutdown. So what we’re seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to when we were pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control.”
This is a really big deal for the GOP because it shows that the Democrat message is not hitting home with most voters. That is why if I were Thune, I would start doing piecemeal bills to put Democrats on the spot. It would show the American people that the GOP is willing to work with Democrats, but liberals are the ones taking the hard line. There is just too much at stake to take an all-or-nothing attitude right now.
