There was a time when Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) was dominating the New Jersey Senate race, up by 21 points against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
A past scandal during her days at the Naval Academy subsequently popped up, and she has since started to slide.
Now, Sherrill has only a five-point lead in the race, but history says the contest is likely far closer than that.
The “October surprise” against Sherrill was the revelation of a cheating scandal at the U.S. Naval Academy that prevented her from walking during her graduation ceremony with her classmates.
Brent Sadler, a Heritage Foundation senior research fellow who served 26 years in the Navy after graduating from the Academy in 1994, commented on the “cheating” scandal in which Sherill claimed she was penalized for refusing to rat out her fellow students.
Sherill claimed, "I didn’t turn in some of my classmates, so I didn’t walk but graduated and was commissioned as an officer in the U.S. Navy, serving for nearly ten years with the highest level of distinction and honor."
Sadler stated, "At some point in time, she lied, or she obscured the facts. I would say lying, and that's why she didn't graduate or walk across the stage. Because if you simply did not report something, it wasn't grounds for honor code violations at the time.”
As we noted above, in a June Rutgers-Eagleton poll, Sherrill was up by 21 points, but that massive lead is now gone.
The latest Rutgers poll has Sherrill up only five points, with a Trafalgar Group poll that was taken two weeks ago showing the race down to just one point in her favor.
Sherrill is attempting to downplay the polling swing, stating, "Our polling's looking good. I think we're feeling really good right now.” Ciattarelli made the same claim, stating, "I think we're in a great position.”
Polling is never completely accurate, so you have to look at historical trends and momentum, and right now, both favor Ciattarelli.
The issue in New Jersey is what we have seen nationwide in terms of pundits underestimating the GOP contingent. Generally speaking, polls have been off by two to three points when it comes to measuring Republican support, but this particular poll has really missed the mark.
Political commentator Matt Roone explained, “This garbage pollster missed by 5 in 2021 and 14 in 2024. I’m now convinced it’s really Jack +2.” I would not be that confident, as there are plenty of other polls to which we can look. My gut tells me that the Democrat has no more than a two-point lead at this point, and she is on the losing side of momentum right now.
Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, offered up an explanation, stating, “Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation. This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates.”
The race is clearly too close to call, but if I were leading the GOP, I would be begging Donald Trump and JD Vance to make appearances in the state to try to swing the final few percentage points over to Ciattarelli’s favor. A win here would be a huge coup for the GOP, especially since it looks like Republicans will lose Virginia back to the Democrats, with Abigail Spanberger currently holding a nine-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the gubernatorial contest. With Virginia appearing to be a lost cause, I think it is time to go all-in in New Jersey.
