With everything that is going on in the country right now, one would think that solidly blue states would have no problem getting a Democrat elected again.
That, however, is not the case.
There are two key battles taking place in which the GOP has a real chance of upending the apple cart and stealing some deep blue offices.
The one race about which I wish I had something positive to report, but do not, is the New York City mayoral race.
While one piece of the puzzle has fallen into place, that being Mayor Eric Adams dropping out, GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa is refusing to leave the race.
If we move Adams’ numbers over to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, he is still down by about 11%, and guess how much support Sliwa has right now? If you said 11%, you win the prize.
I think it is a fairly safe assumption that the majority of Sliwa voters would vote for Cuomo, as there is no way they would back socialist hopeful Zohran Mamdani, but if Sliwa stays in the race, Cuomo has no path to victory at all. With only a month to go before the election and three weeks before early voting, we need Sliwa to drop out soon, or that city is lost.
Later today will be the final debate between Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest.
Not so long ago, this was a walkover win for Sherrill, but her lead has dissipated to as little as two points in some polls, though she still holds a lead of as much as eight points in other polls. That said, even at eight points, Ciattarelli has cut this deficit significantly over the last two months.
With everything that is happening in the country at present, my guess is that Sherrill will go after Ciattarelli for his noted ties to Trump, and that will likely dominate the evening. The other topic of note will be Sherrill’s involvement in a cheating scandal at the Naval Academy.
Ciattarelli has a real chance to steal this election, but he is going to have to be very careful how he treads when Trump comes up during the debate. This event is about as big as it gets, and I look forward to seeing polling next week to get a much better feel for how this race is going to go.
While it appears that we are going to lose New York City to Mamdani, the state of New York is up for grabs during the 2026 cycle, at least if we are to believe the latest polling.
The last poll that I saw taken was in September, and current Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) was holding about a 20-point lead over potential opponent Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), but an internal poll says that such a race, should it come to fruition, is down to a margin of only about five points.
The New York Post reported, “Stefanik trails behind Hochul, 48% to 43%, on an initial ballot but narrowly beats the incumbent Democrat, 46.4% to 45.9%, when voters leaning toward voting in the 2026 race hear about the governor endorsing New York City mayoral front-runner and socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, the poll found, among other issues.”
There are some major outside factors in this race, with Mamdani being one of them. If he wins New York City, there is a significant percentage of voters who say they would vote GOP just to block him. Keep in mind, Stefanik has not even announced her candidacy yet, but she is expected to do so right after the 2025 cycle is done. My friends, this mansion is very winnable, and it would be a crushing blow to Democrats if it happens.
