The 2026 election cycle will be here before you know it, and history says it will not be kind to the GOP.
In fact, we are already seeing signs that voters are turning on the Republican Party.
We lost two key seats in the Iowa state senate, and now also a special election in Virginia, cutting the GOP majority in the House.
If you have been reading my posts on this, you know what history says about this.
There have been two presidencies since 1939 whose party won the midterm elections during the first cycle after a change of party in the White House.
The most recent one was George W. Bush, which was solely due to the 9/11 attacks.
In most cases, there are dozens of seats lost, including during the tenures of Barack Obama and Donald Trump, who collectively lost more than 100 seats during their first midterm cycle. It will take a perfect storm for the GOP to hold the House.
Last week, we reported that two seats were lost in Iowa’s state legislature, which broke the supermajority Republicans had in place for three years.
The fact that the seats were lost in districts where Trump had dominated the presidential election was a big red flag for me.
Rather than admit there is a problem, Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann just made excuses.
He stated, “National Democrats were so desperate for a win that they activated 30,000 volunteers and a flood of national money to win a state senate special election by a few hundred votes.”
Democrats just took back a seat in the House after James Walkinshaw defeated GOP foe Stewart Whitson.
After the win, Walkinshaw stated, “The voters of Fairfax have spoken clearly: They want a representative who will fight for our community and deliver better results.”
Dems were expected to win this seat, but the alarming factor of this is how they won, with a 3:1 margin in the final vote tally, which I hope serves as a wake-up call for the GOP. Sadly, I am not seeing any urgency just yet.
To me, it looks like we are losing some of the moderate voters who backed Trump in the 2024 election, and that is something we cannot afford to do if we are going to hold the House. I have seen little fight thus far from the RNC, while Democrats are already whipping up their base. The clock is ticking, my friends, and it is time to get to work.
