We are not even deep into the heart of the 2026 midterm election cycle yet, but many people are already looking forward to the 2028 presidential election.
If I had to pick the top names on the major-party tickets today, based on momentum, I think the matchup would be between Vice President JD Vance and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
If that is the case, Democrats had better start panicking.
I would love to see Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the ticket, but I don’t think he will be running in 2028, regardless of how the second Trump administration pans out.
If Trump has a solid tenure in office, Vance will be the clear frontrunner in the 2028 election. And if the people are fed up with Trump, DeSantis would be a fool to run, as the GOP will all but assuredly lose. In all honesty, I think DeSantis’ political career could be over in terms of presidential hopes unless a Democrat wins in 2028, as Vance’s VP would likely be the next frontrunner in 2036.
The polls tell me I am right, as Vance is trouncing the field, and it is not even close.
In a recent poll among Republicans, Vance had 43% support, with DeSantis a distant second at 8%, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy, whom I will never support, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whom I would love to see on a Vance ticket as VP.
After the 2024 race was over, Kamala Harris was the Democrats' clear frontrunner, enjoying a massive lead similar to what Vance is seeing, but that did not last long.
After a few months, it was former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who became her main threat, but as I had predicted, that did not last very long. My eyes then went to Newsom, who was making big moves.
When Harris announced that she had no plans to run to become California's governor, she really started to tank, then Newsom announced he was going to save the world from Texas by redoing California’s already gerrymandered maps, and he shot up like a rocket.
In the national polling average, Harris’ lead has shrunk to less than 1%, while Buttieg has now dropped to third. It is Newsom in second place, and in the latest Emerson College Poll, it is Newsom ahead by 9.1%, a huge move. He is also leading in California polls, which tells me that he is the guy, at least for now.
As we all know, presidential races are decided by key battleground states, and if the tickets look the way we think they will, it is bad news for Democrats.
Polls conducted in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by Plymouth Union Public Research give Vance the edge. Vance was the preferred candidate in five of the seven states, and held a 51-49% advantage over Newsom overall.
Newsom was also losing the crossover vote, with Vance winning 9% of Democrat votes while Newsom was only winning 7% of GOP votes.
This is not a good sign for Democrats, but there is still a lot of time before we get serious about this. What it does, however, is give us a better idea of who to focus our attacks on, and quite frankly, Newsom is easy pickings.
