As you are reading this, Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky are likely to be sitting down for a very high-stakes meeting.
The discussion comes just after Trump returned from his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Now, the president is set to meet with Zelensky to see if they can work out a deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
When the meeting with Putin was first announced, let’s just say communication about the summit's specifics was less than stellar.
At the time, Zelensky was furious that he had not been invited to the meeting, and rightfully so.
He stated, "We cannot accept it, as an independent country.” He was speaking to the possibility of a deal without the consent of Ukraine.
At the time, I fully backed his stance, as it was ridiculous to think a peace deal for a nation could be made without it's leaders' involvement. However, since then, it was made clear that this was just a feeler meeting for Trump, trying to get an idea of what Putin would accept in order to make peace.
While Democrats went after Trump for holding the Alaska meeting, just as we expected, Trump came out of the summit with a very positive attitude.
He stated, "It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.”
Putin also responded, "We, of course, respect the position of the U.S. administration, which sees a need for an early cessation of hostilities. Well, we would also like to resolve all issues by peaceful means. The conversation was very frank, informative, and I think it brings us closer to the right decisions."
When Trump first took office, I thought this war would take about six months to end, and Trump has fallen behind that pace, but now it seems like he finally has some solid footing on what it would take to get a peace deal in place, but that all depends on Zelensky falling in line.
Trump invited Zelensky to the White House on Monday to discuss what he talked about with Putin, but the Ukrainian leader is not coming alone, as he will reportedly be flanked by his allies in the European Union (EU).
We do know that Trump plans to offer Article 5-type security protections for Ukraine, with the administration stating, "We got to an agreement that the United States and other European nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to cover a security guarantee.”
This is not an offer of NATO membership, but it will provide Ukraine with many of the same protections NATO members receive, something which should appease Zelensky, but I am not sure that showing up with a team of EU reps is the best way to go about this, especially since Trump and Zelensky have a strained relationship already.
My gut tells me that Trump is going to want Zelensky to give up some land, and that Zelensky will push back, supported by his EU contingent. I think this could lead to Trump threatening to pull military aid, which would result in all of Ukraine falling or EU allies having to pick up the full price tag of this war, which they are likely unwilling to do (while at the same time lecturing Trump on why he needs to continue to support Ukraine). I really want to be wrong here, but I just don’t see this ending well with the EU contingent in tow.
