Midterm elections after a party change in the White House are historically a bloodbath for the side that holds the White House.
That said, you need as many familiar names on the ballot as possible to minimize the damage.
The 2026 cycle was already going to be a challenge, but a recent announcement could make things even more difficult.
South Carolina is a state that traditionally gives Republican candidates an easy road to the governor’s mansion. Going backward in the last three elections, the GOP won by roughly 18%, 8%, and 14%.
Point being, you put a decent candidate on the board, and the GOP will hold the mansion.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) just threw her hat into that race, and she will likely get President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but she is a rather controversial and polarizing character.
Jordan Ragusa, a political science professor at the College of Charleston, offered his two cents, stating, “A lot will be decided on the campaign trail in the coming year. All in all, this is a very competitive race, even though Mace is the presumed front-runner. I think every candidate has a good shot of winning.”
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) is another Trump loyalist, and she, too, has decided to go for a promotion, tossing her hat into the Tennessee gubernatorial race.
Like South Carolina, the governor’s mansion in Tennessee is usually painted red, with the last three elections won by Republicans by margins of roughly 32%, 21%, and 48%.
In announcing her campaign, Blackburn stated, "In his first six months, President Trump has made historic strides in Making America Great Again, but as he sends power back to the states, he’s going to need strong conservative governors who can bring that revolution home. I’m running to serve as Tennessee’s next governor to ensure Tennessee is America’s conservative leader.”
Like Mace, Blackburn will be installed as the frontrunner for the nomination and the general election and will likely enjoy an endorsement from Trump. In her case, there is little doubt she will win now that she has announced.
Generally speaking, a change of party in the White House does not have much of an impact on the Senate in terms of big swings, save a few exceptions, such as Barack Obama losing six seats and Bill Clinton losing eight.
The House, however, routinely turns into a massacre for the party that reclaimed the White House in the prior cycle.
Working backwards from the 2022 election, the incoming party in its first midterm election lost nine, 40, and 63 seats. The George W. Bush administration defied historical trends, gaining eight seats, but before that, Clinton lost 52, George H.W. Bush lost eight, and Ronald Reagan lost 26.
With Democrats looking to counter Texas’s mid-decade gerrymandering, the GOP could be set up for a crushing defeat, even more so if we have to defend seats where incumbents are retiring or moving on in the hopes of gaining higher office. To be blunt, we need to brace for the worst and hope that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has a plan to minimize the damage. Otherwise, Trump is a lame duck, likely impeached, and we turn the White House back over to Democrats in 2028.
