Republican Senate hopeful Michele Tafoya has pulled a blue-leaning Minnesota race into competitive territory as a sprawling fraud scandal shadows Democrats less than three weeks from Election Day.
Fox News Digital reported that its Power Rankings moved the Minnesota U.S. Senate contest from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat on Tuesday, a rare shift in a state Republicans have not carried in a Senate race in nearly a quarter-century.
A new Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll underscored the tightening: Tafoya trailed Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan by four percentage points. The former longtime NFL sideline reporter is now running hard against Flanagan’s eight-year record as Gov. Tim Walz’s second-in-command, and voters appear to be listening.
National Republicans heavily recruited Tafoya to flip the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. With Election Day less than three weeks away, the race has become a late test of whether accountability for government failure can crack a long-blue map.
In an interview with Fox News Digital, Tafoya framed the choice in blunt workplace terms. She argued that Walz understood the political damage and walked away from another term, while Flanagan still wants a higher office.
"Walz understood that he was not going to win another term as governor with these conditions, but my opponent thinks she deserves a promotion. I think people are starting to realize she deserves a pink slip."
Tafoya tied that judgment to what she called historic fraud under the Walz-Flanagan administration. She said the theft did more than drain public money. It gutted the very programs the money was supposed to protect.
"There has been historic fraud under this administration, where Peggy Flanagan, my opponent, has been the second-in-charge in this state. And not only was the money stolen, it hollowed out these programs that were supposed to be getting help, like kids' meals or autistic kids or seniors who were supposed to be getting visits, health visits, wellness visits. And, so, that's been hollowed out."
Minnesota’s welfare assistance fraud scandal has drawn national attention for nearly a year. Walz abandoned his 2026 re-election bid and accepted blame for the fraud, according to the reporting. Flanagan has said she is “incredibly angry with the fraud,” acknowledged public frustration, and conceded more could have been done sooner. She has also noted she was not running the state agencies at the center of the scandals or steering the daily state response, distancing herself from Walz while still seeking a promotion to the Senate.
Minnesota-based Republican strategist Kirsten Kukowski told Fox News Digital the coverage has been relentless and is showing up in the numbers.
"It's wall-to-wall coverage on every nightly news program here for months and months. We're seeing it in polling."
Kukowski said Flanagan carries “a lot of fraud baggage” that has made the Senate race “really tight.” That is the core of Tafoya’s case: voters are being asked to elevate the state’s second-in-command after years of failure that hollowed out help for children and seniors.
Tafoya won more than 50% of the vote in the GOP Senate primary and has cast herself as an independent-minded candidate with fresh ideas. She told Fox News Digital that Minnesotans are “jumping on board” as they learn more about both nominees.
"The more that Minnesotans learn about me and my opponent and see what my opponent has failed to do over the last eight years alongside [Democratic Gov.] Tim Walz, they're understanding Minnesota needs change. We need fresh ideas, we need an independent thinker and they're jumping on board."
Flanagan took a different path. The progressive lieutenant governor topped more moderate Rep. Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in the August Senate primary and celebrated on election night in Minneapolis. Left-wing champions Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Rep. Ro Khanna have backed her.
Senate Majority PAC communications director Lauren French pushed back on the idea that Minnesota is truly in play. She told Fox News Digital the group’s latest poll showed Flanagan with a strong lead and said Democrats fully expect her to win. French called the late Republican push “a political ploy” and said Republicans are spending in deep-red states while the battleground map expands around them.
Democrats are also hoping Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is running for governor this year, can help carry Flanagan across the finish line. On the Republican side, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott praised the recruitment and the candidate’s appeal during an appearance on Fox News’ “Hannity.”
"We did a really good job of recruiting the most independent-minded Republican who understands why it's important to win in Minnesota. Michele Tafoya has a story to tell. She's doing a really good job. This is a race that will come down to the wire."
Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently joined Tafoya on the campaign trail in Minnesota. The Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, a top super PAC for GOP Senate candidates, had yet to make a major investment in the race at the time of the Fox News Digital report, another sign national money is still weighing how real the opening is.
Beyond fraud, Tafoya is pressing public safety. On Monday she announced a five-point plan to combat violence and highlighted a recent spate of gang-related shootings in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs. She argued Flanagan will not even name the problem.
Tafoya said Somali lawmakers and law enforcement have already identified a Somali gang violence problem, and that refusing to say so makes it impossible to fix. “You can't fix it if you don't name it,” she said. She also pledged speed in office, saying her first eight weeks as a senator would outdo Flanagan’s eight years as second-in-charge.
Flanagan’s campaign has answered by tying Tafoya to President Donald Trump. In a social media post Monday, Flanagan wrote that “Michele Tafoya is all in for Donald Trump, and he's all in for her.” On X she added that her Ojibwe name means “Speaks in a Loud and Clear Voice Woman,” and that she intends to be Minnesota’s voice in the Senate, “not Donald Trump’s.” Trump’s approval ratings have been described as well underwater in Minnesota, which is why Democrats keep forcing the association.
Tafoya has not run from the president, and she has not pretended to be a rubber stamp either. In a campaign commercial she called herself “a pro-choice Republican not afraid to stand up to my party” and said, “When Trump is right, I will work with him. When he is wrong, I will stand up for Minnesota.”
That ad drew a sharp rebuke from Mercedes Schlapp, a senior fellow at the Conservative Political Action Conference, who warned on social media that “Pro-life Republicans will stay home after watching this ad.” Hours later, Trump gave Tafoya a public plug at an Ohio rally he headlined, telling the crowd, “You have to vote for Michele Tafoya, who’s a very respected person.”
Tafoya has leaned into grassroots energy rather than waiting on every national check. She said small-dollar donations are arriving from across the country and from every county in Minnesota, and that she intends to win on ideas as a “happy warrior.”
The Flanagan campaign did not respond to Fox News Digital by publication time. That silence leaves the lieutenant governor’s own record, and her bid to move up after the Walz years, at the center of the argument voters are now hearing every night.
Minnesota Democrats want a promotion for the same leadership team that oversaw hollowed-out programs and a scandal big enough to end a governor’s career. Voters get the final say on whether that is accountability, or business as usual with a new title.
