A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Hispanic likely voters backing Republicans over Democrats by eight points, a break from years of lopsided Democratic margins with that group.
Hispanic likely voters now prefer Republicans 50 percent to 42 percent, according to a nationwide Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday.
The same survey still shows Democrats slightly ahead on the generic congressional ballot among all likely voters. But the Hispanic numbers cut against the long-running claim that the GOP is losing ground with that electorate.
Rasmussen fielded the poll September 24 and 27-30 among 1,794 U.S. likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
On the generic ballot for Congress, Democrats stood at 47 percent and Republicans at 44 percent. Another 4 percent backed a different party, and 4 percent remained undecided.
That national picture is tighter than it was only weeks earlier. In mid-September, Democrats led by eight points in the national survey. Rasmussen said the Democratic lead has now shrunk for a second straight week.
Republicans also closed a much wider earlier gap. The company reported that Republicans had cut an 18-point deficit down to 9 points in the most recent reading.
Among Hispanic voters, the shift is clearer still. In mid-September, Democrats held a slim 44 percent to 42 percent edge with that group. The new poll flips it to a Republican lead of eight points.
The Hispanic movement did not start with this survey. Pew Research Center data cited in the same report tracks a multi-cycle collapse in the old Democratic advantage.
Pew Research Center found:
"In 2020, Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25 percentage points, and Hispanic voters supported Hillary Clinton by an even wider margin in 2016. But Trump drew nearly even with Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters, losing among them by only 3 points."
That 2024 result left Trump essentially competitive with Harris among Hispanics after Biden’s 25-point win only four years earlier. The new Rasmussen figures go further, putting Republicans ahead with Hispanic likely voters on the generic ballot.
Those numbers also undercut a familiar media storyline. Coverage has often framed Hispanic voters as fleeing the GOP. The recent polling runs the other way.
A generic ballot asks likely voters which party’s candidate they support without naming individual contenders. It is an early read on national mood, not a forecast of every district.
Rasmussen’s sample is national. It does not break out every state, age band, or county in the material reported with this release. Full crosstabs beyond the headline Hispanic and overall figures were not detailed in the account of the poll.
Even so, the direction is hard to miss. Hispanics moved from a narrow Democratic edge in mid-September to a clear Republican lead by the end of the month. Overall, Democrats lost ground two weeks in a row after holding a larger advantage.
Democrats spent a generation treating Hispanic voters as a reliable pillar of their coalition. Biden’s 2020 margin fit that model. Clinton’s 2016 margin was wider still.
Trump’s near-even showing with Harris in 2024 cracked it. Rasmussen’s latest likely-voter survey suggests the crack is widening, not closing.
When working families start voting on borders, jobs, and public order instead of party habit, coalition math changes, and no press narrative can reverse the tally.
