Over the last few days, three events took place that we really need to look at in the big picture for Trump, Republicans, and the midterm elections.
On the surface, most would say these events are not technically connected, but I disagree. I see a domino effect taking place. I also believe this is a major warning sign that the political landscape around President Donald J. Trump is making a significant shift.
Tuesday evening, the House passed the war powers resolution by a vote of 220-204, with seven Republicans breaking ranks.
Technically, this does nothing to stop Trump because Trump will veto it, but it is an open revolt against the president by a significant number of Republicans. More importantly, they were not afraid to go on record as standing up against Trump on this matter. I would also note that public support has shifted regarding Iran, if we are to believe polling over the last few months.
Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI), who is fighting for his seat in a true battleground state, said:
"I've been consistent on that since the war powers provision expired after 60 days of engagement."
Keep in mind, the Senate passed a similar measure in June, so Republicans are clearly trying to distance themselves from this war.
| Member | Chamber | State / District | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE — September 16, 2026 vote (220-204) | |||
| Rep. Tom Barrett | House (R) | Michigan | "I've been consistent on that since the war powers provision expired after 60 days of engagement." Voted for all three prior resolutions. |
| Rep. Warren Davidson | House (R) | Ohio | Longtime constitutionalist. One of the original two House Republicans to break with Trump on the first war powers vote in June. |
| Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | House (R) | Pennsylvania | Moderate Republican from a swing district. Has voted with Democrats on multiple foreign policy resolutions. |
| Rep. Nancy Mace | House (R) | South Carolina | First-time defector. Increasingly at odds with GOP leadership. |
| Rep. Thomas Massie | House (R) | Kentucky | Original co-sponsor with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Survived Trump-backed primary challenge in May. Has also introduced eight articles of impeachment against SecWar Hegseth. |
| Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | House (R) | Iowa | First-time defector. Competitive district in the 2026 midterms. |
| Rep. Zach Nunn | House (R) | Iowa | First-time defector. "I will not support another open-ended war. With the negotiating window closed, sustained combat operations now require congressional authorization." Competitive reelection bid. |
| SENATE — June 23, 2026 vote (50-48) | |||
| Sen. Rand Paul | Senate (R) | Kentucky | Longtime anti-interventionist. Later voted "present" on the follow-up procedural motion after Trump publicly criticized him. |
| Sen. Susan Collins | Senate (R) | Maine | Consistently among the most independent Senate Republicans. Maintained her vote in favor even after Trump's public pressure campaign. |
| Sen. Lisa Murkowski | Senate (R) | Alaska | Ranked-choice voting insulates her from Trump-endorsed primary challenges. Maintained her vote through both procedural motions. |
| Sen. Bill Cassidy | Senate (R) | Louisiana | Lost his Trump-endorsed primary challenge in May 2026. Changed his vote to "no" on the follow-up procedural motion after Trump publicly criticized him. |
| Between the two chambers, 11 sitting Republican members of Congress have gone on record breaking with the sitting president of their own party on Iran war powers. The House vote of September 16, 2026 was the third time the House has passed such a resolution. Each vote has picked up additional Republican defectors. The Senate advanced its own resolution on June 23, 2026 by a 50-48 vote before walking it back the following day under pressure from the White House. A presidential veto is expected on any final legislation. But the political signal — Republicans looking for daylight between themselves and the president during midterm season — is the story the votes are telling.
Sources: Fox News Digital; CBS News; Al Jazeera; CNN; The Hill; Roll Call. |
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Something else to consider is that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who has been at odds with the president for the entirety of his second term, introduced eight articles of impeachment against Sec. of Defense Pete Hegseth, who is not exactly a favorite among all Republicans.
That measure would likely pass the House. And while I doubt there are enough votes in the Senate to have him removed, it will likely be far too close for comfort for Hegseth and the president.
In August, Trump announced that he was lifting tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef to try to bring the price of beef down for consumers. In September, he then signed an executive order, noting that the beef would primarily come from Argentina and Brazil.
Domestic cattle ranchers, most of whom are in red states, were predictably upset, and they did not hide their displeasure.
For instance, the National Cattlemen's Beef Association publicly broke with the White House. And Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) responded:
"We cannot lower grocery prices at the expense of American producers. Flooding the market with foreign beef hurts our livestock industry and undermines the long-term solution: growing the U.S. cattle herd to meet demand."
Fox News talked to Rancher Wilson, who noted that yearling steers sold for $175 less per head than she would normally receive. Most ranching operations in this country work on thin margins, so this likely put most of these operations in the red.
| Date | Action | Rancher / Industry Response | Political Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Trump announces plan to increase beef imports from Argentina to lower grocery prices. | National Cattlemen's Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall: "NCBA and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers." | First public break between the White House and a major GOP industry ally. |
| February 2026 | Trump signs executive order increasing beef imports from Argentina by 80,000 metric tons. | Ranchers push back publicly. Warnings ignored by the administration. | Cattle-state Republicans begin distancing themselves quietly. |
| August 21, 2026 | Trump announces 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free beef imports at 25% below market price. | Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a cattle rancher: "We cannot lower grocery prices at the expense of American producers. Flooding the market with foreign beef hurts our livestock industry." | A sitting GOP Senator from a Trump +double-digit state publicly breaks with the administration. |
| Immediate market response | Cattle prices drop sharply within hours of the announcement. | Rancher Wilson sold yearling steers just after the announcement — received $175 less per head than she would have normally. "That's pretty significant for a producer." | Real economic pain hits Trump's rural base heading into midterm season. |
| September 3, 2026 | Wall Street Journal reveals Trump met with Joesley Batista — Brazilian billionaire who controls JBS, the world's largest meatpacker — the day before the announcement. | Ranchers question whether foreign meatpacking interests are driving American policy. | Credibility damage — the perception that the policy was influenced by a foreign billionaire. |
| September 4, 2026 | Trump signs two executive orders — one confirming Argentina and Brazil as beef sources, another titled "Supporting America's Ranchers" designed to cut red tape. | Ranchers view the second order as damage control — appreciated but insufficient to offset the harm from the first. | Administration begins recognizing the political cost but does not reverse the policy. |
| Ongoing | U.S. cattle herd remains at a 75-year low. Ground beef prices remain at record highs — $6.89/lb national average. | Ranchers argue the long-term solution is rebuilding the American herd — not flooding the market with foreign beef. | Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska — all Trump +double-digit states in 2024 — now considered in play by Democrat strategists. |
| Trump won Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska by double digits in 2024. All three are cattle-producing states. All three now have Republican officeholders publicly breaking with the administration over beef import policy. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association has broken with the White House. A sitting Republican senator who is also a cattle rancher has issued a public rebuke. And ranchers on the ground are losing real money on real herds heading into the November midterm elections.
Sources: National Cattlemen's Beef Association official statements; Fox News Digital; Roll Call (August 21, 2026); The Hill; NPR; Newsweek; Wall Street Journal (Batista/JBS report); White House official proclamations. |
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The cattle herd in this country is already operating at a 75-year low, and we are seeing record-high ground beef prices at the supermarkets because of it. Those prices will only rise more with ranchers taking such a dramatic hit on the price of cattle at the market.
The solution to import beef was a great short-term solution to make an impact at the grocery store, but long-term, it is a complete and utter disaster in terms of supporting domestic ranchers. And living in Texas, this is a very big deal for me as it directly impacts my neighbors and friends who make their living providing food for this country.
In 2024, three of the biggest ranching states, Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska, all went for Trump by double digits. Now the economy of all three of those states has been turned on its ear.
I will get more into this in a bit, but let’s not forget that Ken Paxton is fighting for his life against his Democrat opponent, James Talarico, in the upcoming midterm election to fill the seat currently occupied by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
On the same day the House was voting on the Iran resolution, Ursula von der Leyen was in Strasbourg proposing that Canada become the European Union's first "associate member" during her State of the Union address.
Right in the front row, soaking in every word, was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. This is the first time a foreign government head has ever been invited to these proceedings.
Von der Leyen stated:
"I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada being the first associate member of the EU."
It does not get more direct than that. She also referred to this as an "Alliance for the Future," which would make Canada a key trading partner for manufacturing, AI, critical minerals, energy, and defense.
Trump has been trying to bully Canada to become the 51st state, which I have openly disagreed with. Why in the world would we want a country infested with liberals to totally shift the power in this country to Democrats? We are talking about influence the likes of California and New York being gift-wrapped by a Republican president. It’s absurd.
Currently, about 70% of all Canadian exports come to the United States, but that could change rather dramatically soon. The EU is openly courting Canada, and French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting Carney on September 20 in Saint Pierre and Miquelon, French territorial waters off Canada's Atlantic coast, in a show of solidarity against Trump.
If the relationship between Canada and the United States were stable, this would not be happening. Those goods will have to be replaced, but now they won’t be coming from just across the northern border. That means significantly higher prices for the American consumer.
Many, Trump included, thought he had the leverage because Canada needs us more than we need Canada. But the fact that some of our biggest allies are giving Canada a lifeline in this feud, well, that speaks volumes to me.
Earlier this year, I wrote a Deep Dive as well as a follow-up on Substack about Trump putting his thumb on the scale. I noted how the GOP would have to pour money into this race that could be used elsewhere to win more races. Even if Paxton wins, the GOP is likely to lose races it could have won because of the financial drain that comes with Paxton.
Most of Paxton’s money is coming from major GOP PACs, including the ones associated with President Trump. On the flip side, Talarico raised $27 million on his own in a single quarter. Voters are financially backing Talarico while PACs and the Party are supporting Paxton.
This is Texas we are talking about, with a no-name state legislator giving a forever politician in Texas a run for his money. In fact, numerous polls have Talarico in the lead.
Let that sink in. This is not Michigan, Pennsylvania, or some other key battleground state. This is Texas, a state that has not had a sitting Democrat senator since 1993.
The warning signs are all there for the president to make changes, but the clock is ticking.
Overseas ballots are already being cast. This week, early voting starts in a handful of states. By mid-October, it will be in full swing. And in less than 50 days, the polls open for Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections now belong to President Trump whether he wants to take ownership or not. He meddled in midterm elections, and he won far more than he lost, so these candidates are all his.
Ranchers revolting. A close race in Texas. Allies looking for new partners. Republicans openly defying their president. If this were a coal mine, the canary just came back dead.
