A forensic psychologist claims the two ransom notes in the Nancy Guthrie disappearance were written by different people with competing motives, an analysis complicated by the FBI's earlier conclusion that none of the notes are genuine.
Gary Brucato, a forensic psychologist, told NewsNation journalist Brian Entin on Friday that the language, tone, and psychology of the two notes sent after the 84-year-old Arizona woman vanished suggest at least two authors operating behind the scenes, and a third person, the masked figure caught on surveillance footage, serving as a hired hand. Brucato's theory sketches a fractured conspiracy: one participant driven by greed, another motivated by something more personal, and a go-between who showed up on the porch to do the dirty work.
But the theory lands in an investigation already shaped by a different federal finding. Newsmax reported in late June that the FBI determined all three kidnapping-related messages connected to the case are fake, sent by someone with no actual connection to the disappearance. Agents deposited cryptocurrency as instructed in the first note to test its authenticity. No one ever claimed the funds.
Nancy Guthrie, the mother of "Today" show co-host Savannah Guthrie, disappeared from her home in Catalina Hills, Arizona, on January 31. Blood was found on her front porch. The first ransom note arrived on February 2, demanding $4 million in bitcoin. It contained two details that, as the New York Post reported, implied some familiarity with Guthrie's home.
Four days later, on February 6, a second note arrived, this one addressed not to Savannah Guthrie but to "the Guthrie family." Its tone was starkly different. Where the first note was transactional, the second was confessional:
"We never intended to hurt her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken."
The note went further, claiming the kidnappers "did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition" and that Guthrie died from a heart-related condition. It closed with language Brucato described as "florid":
"She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly sorry."
Brucato told NewsNation the contrast between the two notes is the key to the case, or at least to understanding the people who wrote them.
In Brucato's reading, the first note is pure extortion. The second note undermines it. One demands money. The other announces the victim is dead, which eliminates any leverage for collecting a ransom. That contradiction, Brucato argued, points to two authors with incompatible goals.
"The first one is demanding money and the second one is undoing the ability of the first person to get money, which suggests to me that the first person would've been kinda mad that the second person wrote the note."
He described the second note's author as someone experiencing guilt, possibly a woman, someone who may have known Savannah Guthrie personally and was trying to create emotional distance from the crime. He characterized the language as carrying "a modicum of sympathy" mixed with self-protective distancing.
"It was money and something else, emotion, something that was preyed upon and the person regretted it because it all went up in smoke."
As for the masked figure captured on surveillance video outside Guthrie's home the night she vanished, described by the FBI as a male approximately 5-foot-9 with a medium build, carrying an Ozark Trail Hiker Pack backpack, Brucato dismissed him as a foot soldier.
"I think [it] is clear was some sort of goon that was put there to give the impression of a totally outside agent who never met this woman who came in to do the dirty work."
Brucato estimated at least three people were involved: the masked figure, and two note authors with "different psychologies and motives." He compared the emotional fallout for the participants to gambling away everything on a slot machine, total loss, compounded by mounting legal exposure.
"Ultimately nobody got anything out of this. The way this is going to feel to a basically normal individual, not a psychopath, is like the way you would feel if you put all of your money into a slot machine and it went up in smoke."
Brucato's analysis, however detailed, runs into a hard wall: the FBI's determination that none of the ransom communications are genuine. Federal investigators concluded the first two notes came from the same sender, a finding that directly contradicts Brucato's two-author theory, and that the sender had no actual connection to Nancy Guthrie's disappearance. The unclaimed cryptocurrency deposit was the clearest indicator. If the note writers had Guthrie, they had no interest in collecting the ransom they demanded.
That finding raises an uncomfortable possibility the Guthrie family has already acknowledged. Savannah Guthrie herself said publicly, "She may already be gone." If the ransom notes were opportunistic fakes, someone exploiting a high-profile disappearance for a payday they never followed through on, then Brucato's psychological profiles may describe real people who nonetheless had nothing to do with whatever happened to Nancy Guthrie.
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos revealed at a February 5 press conference that Guthrie's pacemaker app disconnected at 2:28 a.m., a detail that has not been publicly tied to a specific date. AP News reported that investigators found blood on the front porch and collected unidentified DNA from the property. Several gloves were recovered roughly two miles from the home and submitted for lab analysis.
The investigation has consumed enormous resources. Hundreds of law enforcement agents have worked the case. More than 31,000 tips have poured in. Tens of thousands of video clips have been reviewed. Yet six months after Guthrie vanished, no arrest has been made.
One early lead, a glove found near the Guthrie home that the Washington Examiner reported appeared to match those worn by the masked suspect in surveillance footage, produced a DNA profile. The FBI sent it overnight to a private lab in Florida. But the DNA failed to match any profile in the national criminal database, a dead end that left investigators without a name to attach to the figure on the porch.
Sheriff Nanos has acknowledged the forensic work has been "complex and time-intensive." In a video message marking the six-month anniversary, he pushed back against any suggestion the case has gone cold.
Fox News reported that Nanos explained the decision to release the ransom notes publicly: investigators hoped someone might recognize the distinctive language or phrasing.
"We're still here. We are not going away. If you could just see the team working, you would see the energy, the concern. They're fired up, and we'll continue to work this case hard."
The case drew national attention almost immediately, in part because of Savannah Guthrie's public profile and in part because of the brutality the evidence suggested. President Trump personally called Savannah Guthrie and ordered all federal law enforcement to assist local investigators. Breitbart reported that Trump posted a public statement making the directive clear.
"I spoke with Savannah Guthrie, and let her know that I am directing ALL Federal Law Enforcement to be at the family's, and Local Law Enforcement's, complete disposal, IMMEDIATELY."
Savannah Guthrie and her family released an emotional video pleading for her mother's safe return, while also acknowledging the possibility that the people behind the notes might not actually have Nancy.
"We are doing everything we can. However, we live in a world where voices and images are easily manipulated. We need to know, without a doubt, that she is alive and that you have her."
That caution proved well-founded. The FBI's later conclusion that the notes were fake validated the family's instinct that the ransom demands might be a cruel hoax layered on top of a real crime.
Six months of investigation have produced surveillance footage, DNA, gloves, ransom notes, and tens of thousands of tips. None of it has produced a suspect. The FBI says the notes are fake. Brucato says they reveal a fractured conspiracy. Sheriff Nanos says his team is fired up. And Nancy Guthrie, 84 years old, remains missing.
Whether Brucato's psychological profiles point toward real accomplices or merely toward opportunists who tried to exploit a family's nightmare, the core question remains unanswered: what happened to Nancy Guthrie on the night her pacemaker went silent, and who was the person on her porch?
An 84-year-old woman vanished from her home in the middle of the night, and after half a year, the people responsible still walk free. That is the only fact that matters to the family waiting for answers, and to every American who expects law enforcement to deliver them.
