A new University of New Hampshire poll shows Secretary of State Marco Rubio cutting Vice President JD Vance's lead in the state's hypothetical 2028 GOP primary from 46 points to just 10, a shift that could reshape the early succession fight.
Vance still leads the field at 36 percent among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, but Rubio now sits at 26 percent, Fox News Digital reported. That gap looked very different just months ago. In a previous UNH Granite State Poll conducted in February, Vance commanded 53 percent to Rubio's 7 percent, a 46-point advantage that has now collapsed by more than three-quarters.
The rest of the field is far behind. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Ambassador Nikki Haley each pulled 8 percent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who ran for the nomination in 2024, drew 6 percent. Everyone else tested at 4 percent or less.
Rubio has not announced a 2028 bid. He has said he would back Vance if the vice president launches a campaign. But the former Florida senator's public profile has grown sharply during his tenure at the State Department, driven by his role in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Those assignments have kept him in front of cameras and in headlines, the kind of visibility that money cannot always buy.
President Trump has added fuel. He declared earlier this year that Rubio would go down as "the greatest secretary of state in history." He also floated a Vance-Rubio ticket, calling it "unstoppable." For a term-limited president whose endorsement carries enormous weight in Republican primaries, that kind of praise does not go unnoticed by donors or early-state activists.
Vance, for his part, rose to national prominence as Trump's vice-presidential pick and has spent the past year building out a political team of advisors. He visited Des Moines in May, appearing at the Iowa Army and Air National Guard alongside Rep. Zach Nunn. Iowa and New Hampshire remain the two states where presidential ambitions are tested earliest, and Vance's presence there was not accidental.
New Hampshire-based Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, told Fox News Digital the poll reflects reality on the ground:
"There's nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense."
Fox News Digital reported earlier this year that a group of GOP donors supporting Rubio has been quietly exploring ways to boost the secretary of state's political profile. That kind of activity, informal, deniable, but purposeful, is how modern presidential campaigns begin long before any formal announcement.
An operative in Trump's political orbit pushed back on the donor maneuvering, telling Fox News Digital:
"Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party, and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration. The divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful."
Vance himself has tried to shut down the rivalry narrative. In an interview on Fox News' The Story with Martha MacCallum earlier this year, the vice president called Rubio "my closest friend in the administration" and added a jab at the press.
"I think it's so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn't any conflict."
That may be true today. But presidential primaries do not run on friendship. They run on ambition, opportunity, and polling momentum, and Rubio now has all three working in his favor, even without lifting a finger to campaign. Vance's own media efforts have drawn praise from unlikely corners, but a strong public profile cuts both ways when a cabinet rival is building one of his own on the world stage.
Trump said last year that Vance is "most likely" his heir apparent, adding, "In all fairness, he's the vice president." That framing positions Vance as the default frontrunner, but it also sets a ceiling. If Trump's endorsement is the primary asset, then Trump's mood is the primary risk.
A longtime Republican strategist, speaking anonymously to Fox News Digital, offered a blunt warning about Vance's position:
"Vance is in the catbird seat until something really goes bad, and Trump is going to blame him.... I can't imagine Vance walking this tightrope for two more years without p***ing off Trump."
That assessment may prove wrong. But it captures a structural reality that no amount of friendly interviews can erase. Vice presidents serve at the pleasure of the president, and when things go sideways, on the economy, on foreign policy, on midterm losses, the person standing closest to the president often absorbs the first round of blame.
The CPAC straw poll earlier this year gave Vance the top spot, with Rubio finishing a close second. The New Hampshire numbers tell a similar story with a sharper trend line. Vance has been in the public eye for personal milestones as well as political ones, but name recognition alone does not explain a 19-point surge by a rival who is not even running yet.
New Hampshire has held the first Republican presidential primary for a century. Early polling there is not predictive in any scientific sense, but it is diagnostic. It tells campaigns where the energy is moving. Right now, the energy is moving toward Rubio.
The 2028 race is not expected to begin in earnest until after this autumn's midterm elections. Vance has demurred when asked directly about his plans. Rubio has not built the kind of political team that Vance has assembled. And both men insist publicly that they are focused on the work in front of them, not the campaign trail ahead.
But the donor class is not waiting. The poll numbers are not waiting. And the early-state infrastructure in New Hampshire, where past GOP hopefuls have spent millions to build name recognition from scratch, rewards candidates who arrive with a national profile already built. Rubio has that. He earned it not by running ads but by running American foreign policy.
Vance remains the frontrunner. He has the title, the team, and the president's stated preference. But a 10-point lead in a state where he once held 46 is not a coronation. It is a contest.
Vance has shown he can handle hostile territory on daytime television and cable news alike. Whether he can handle a primary opponent who does not need to attack him, who can simply keep racking up diplomatic wins and letting the polls do the talking, is a different question entirely.
In politics, the most dangerous rival is the one who does not have to run against you to beat you. Rubio is not campaigning. He is governing. And right now, that distinction is working in his favor.
