A new Fox News poll shows four in ten voters want dramatic or revolutionary change in the nation's government, with Democrats holding their widest generic ballot lead in three decades, numbers that spell trouble for Republicans heading into November.
The survey of 1,003 registered voters, conducted July 17, 20 by bipartisan polling firms Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, found Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 46% on the generic House ballot. That seven-point gap has widened from five points in April and represents the highest percentage either party has received on the generic ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.
The numbers land at a moment when three-quarters of voters rate the economy negatively, roughly the same share that reports inflation has caused financial hardship. And the pain is getting worse: 34% now describe that hardship as "serious," up from 26% a year ago.
Voters prefer Democrats over Republicans on income inequality by 22 points, healthcare by 21, inflation by 10, the economy by 9, and foreign policy by 7. Republicans hold advantages only on crime, where they lead by 7 points, and national security, where they lead by 2.
The most striking shift may be on immigration. In April, Republicans held an eight-point edge on the issue. That advantage has evaporated entirely. Democrats now lead by a single point. The reversal comes as the broader debate over border security and enforcement continues to dominate federal policy discussions.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducts the Fox News poll, offered a note of caution about translating national numbers into House seats:
"Although these data look promising for the Democrats, some of their support is in less-contested districts, padding their national totals without adding House seats. The best estimates I've seen suggest the GOP could retain the House even if the Democrats win the national vote by 2-3 points, but if Democrats win by 6-7 points, they probably take the House."
That seven-point Democratic margin falls squarely in the danger zone Shaw describes. And in counties where the 2024 presidential vote between Trump and Kamala Harris was decided by ten points or fewer, the competitive battlegrounds, the Democratic candidate leads 59% to 41%.
President Trump's job approval sits at 39%, unchanged for the third consecutive month and just one point above his all-time low of 38% in October 2017. For comparison, Barack Obama stood at 42% in July 2014 at the same point in his second term, and Democrats still lost seats that November.
The issue-by-issue breakdown is rougher. On immigration, 42% approve of Trump's handling while 57% disapprove. On Iran, just 34% approve against 66% who disapprove. The economy draws 33% approval and 67% disapproval. Inflation is the worst: 27% approve, 73% disapprove.
Those inflation numbers reflect a broader economic pessimism that has held steady for six months. Fifty-four percent of voters expect the economy to worsen in the coming year. That figure is driven largely by Democrats, 75% of whom expect decline, and independents, 64% of whom agree. Among Republicans, 71% express optimism, a partisan gap wide enough to suggest voters are evaluating the economy through ideological lenses as much as personal experience. Recent polling has consistently shown economic anxiety shaping voter attitudes across party lines.
Sixty-eight percent of Democrats say they are "extremely motivated" to vote in November. Only 57% of Republicans say the same, an 11-point enthusiasm gap that could matter in close races.
Within the Republican coalition, the divide is even starker. Sixty-six percent of voters who identify as MAGA Republicans report extreme motivation, compared to just 41% of non-MAGA Republicans. That 25-point internal gap suggests the party's base is energized while its broader electorate is not, a problem in swing districts where moderate turnout decides outcomes.
The poll's most revealing finding may be how deeply voters distrust their own side. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say they feel betrayed by their party. Forty-one percent of Republicans say the same. The primary reason cited by both groups: selling out to special interests.
Seventy percent of voters say the Republican Party is closely tied to elite interests. Fifty-five percent say the same about Democrats, a 15-point gap that undercuts the GOP's populist branding. Republicans themselves are equally likely to describe both parties as close to elites, meaning the party's own voters do not see it as meaningfully different from Democrats on this question.
Shaw noted the bipartisan nature of the discontent:
"Democrats and Republicans have a surprisingly broad array of shared beliefs about politics today. Both think elected officials answer to the elites, both think the system is rigged, both want to see new blood in office, both feel betrayed by their party, both disapprove of their members in Congress, and both want a mandatory retirement age for Congress."
Nearly seven in ten voters disapprove of both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. More than eight in ten independents disapprove of both parties' lawmakers. By a two-to-one margin, voters say electing new people matters more than keeping those with experience. Frustration with established political figures has become a bipartisan constant.
Support for a mandatory congressional retirement age has hit 85%, up 20 points since 2002. Of those in favor, 80% think the cutoff should come before age 75, and 61% place it between 65 and 74. That range draws majority support from every generation polled.
The demand for new blood extends beyond Congress. Nineteen percent of voters want "revolutionary" change in the nation's government. Another 23% want "dramatic" change. Combined, four in ten voters are calling for something far beyond incremental reform. Almost twice as many Democrats (52%) as Republicans (28%) want dramatic or revolutionary change, a reversal of the populist energy that drove Trump's 2016 campaign.
Half of voters hold a positive view of capitalism, down from 57% in 2019. Thirty percent view socialism favorably, up from 27% last year but still below the 32% recorded in 2021.
The partisan split is stark. Among Democrats, 52% view socialism favorably compared to 41% for capitalism, an 11-point margin favoring socialism. Among Republicans, 61% favor capitalism against just 11% for socialism. The Democratic Socialists of America draw a 31% favorable rating overall.
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the country's most prominent democratic socialist, is the most popular political figure tested in the poll at 45% favorable. Vice President JD Vance follows at 41%. Trump sits at 38%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York trails at 35%. All four are viewed more unfavorably than favorably.
One detail stands out about Ocasio-Cortez: voters 65 and older are more likely to view her favorably (41%) than voters under 30 (33%). Three times as many young voters say they have never heard of her, 30%, compared to 9% of seniors. Generational divides in political engagement continue to shape how voters relate to prominent figures on both sides.
The share of voters who accept income inequality as simply "how our economy works" has dropped 16 points since 2014, from 62% to 46%. The share who want government action on the gap has more than doubled in the same period, from 13% to 30%.
Sixty-five percent now believe the country's system is rigged in favor of the wealthy, up nine points from 2019. That number cuts across party lines and feeds the broader demand for structural change reflected throughout the poll.
Israel's favorability has also declined across the board. Forty-four percent of voters view Israel favorably, down from 58% a decade ago. The drop spans all partisan groups: Democrats are down 14 points, Republicans down 12, and independents down 21. Voters 65 and over remain the most favorable at 56%, while just 27% of those under 30 share that view.
The poll carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample. An oversample of 200 voters aged 18, 29 brought that subgroup to 350 respondents, with a margin of error of plus or minus five points. Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on landlines and cellphones, with some respondents completing the survey online after receiving a text. How voters receive and process political information remains a factor in how these attitudes translate to actual turnout.
The seven-point generic ballot lead, the enthusiasm gap, the immigration reversal, and the sustained economic pessimism all point in one direction for Republicans: the midterm environment is hostile. Shaw's analysis suggests the GOP could survive a narrow national loss, but a seven-point deficit pushes past that cushion.
Republicans ran on populism, promised to fight for working people, and told voters they would shake up Washington. The voters shook up Washington. Now they are telling pollsters that the party looks just as tied to elites as the one it replaced, and they want to shake things up again.
