President Donald Trump departed Monday evening for a two-day NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, carrying the same message he has pressed on European allies for years: spend more on your own defense, or answer for it. This time, though, the alliance appears ready to show receipts, tens of billions of dollars in new commitments, while the White House makes clear the 5% GDP spending target is not a suggestion.
The summit arrives at a moment when NATO faces overlapping pressure points: the grinding Russia-Ukraine war, the aftermath of a U.S. military campaign against Iran, and growing questions about freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump plans bilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and other allied leaders, with a news conference scheduled for Wednesday.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is expected to highlight what officials describe as historic progress on burden-sharing, the very issue Trump turned into a signature cause during his first term and has only intensified since. But progress is uneven, and the White House is not in a congratulatory mood.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker framed the summit as a measuring stick. AP News reported Whitaker's expectation plainly:
"President Trump fully expects that all allies will step up immediately and get on the path to 5% and do it with urgency."
The 5% target was established at last year's Hague summit. Whitaker noted that countries such as Poland, the Nordic nations, the Baltic states, and Germany have made significant strides. Others, he said, continue to lag behind, though neither he nor other officials publicly named the laggards.
That diplomatic courtesy has limits. Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told the Washington Times that Trump will want to see concrete results: "He's going to want to see progress being made on this." Coffey also suggested that if NATO members play their cards right, the summit could "allow President Trump to take a victory lap."
That framing matters. Trump's pressure campaign on burden-sharing is widely credited with accelerating defense spending across Europe. The question now is whether the acceleration matches the scale of the threats NATO faces.
Trump himself explained why Ankara was on his calendar. Fox News reported that Trump told reporters, "I'm going because of Erdoğan," calling the Turkish leader "a friend" and "a respected leader." White House spokesperson Anna Kelly reinforced the point:
"President Trump has a great relationship with President Erdoğan of Turkey, who has been an incredible partner in the region."
The relationship carries strategic weight. The Trump administration approved a $700 million arms sale to Turkey ahead of the summit, a signal that Washington views Ankara as an ally worth investing in, not just tolerating. Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey put it bluntly: "Turkey is crucial to the Trump administration."
That represents a notable shift. Turkey spent years as NATO's problem child, drawing bipartisan criticism in Washington over its purchase of Russian air-defense systems and its authoritarian drift under Erdogan. Trump's bet is that personal diplomacy and shared strategic interests, particularly in the Middle East, outweigh the friction. Whether that bet pays off depends on what Erdogan delivers in return, and critics at home have not been shy about questioning the president's foreign-policy instincts.
Trump's scheduled sit-down with Zelenskyy on Wednesday may be the most closely watched meeting of the summit. The two leaders are expected to discuss possible paths toward ending the war with Russia, a goal Trump has pursued since returning to office.
Trump spoke by phone with both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, just days before arriving in Ankara. The Washington Times reported that Zelenskyy described the moment with cautious optimism: "There was a real prospect of ending this war."
NATO leaders are also expected to announce additional military assistance for Ukraine during the summit, though specifics remain unclear. The alliance's collective defense posture against Russia has been a central theme of Trump's second-term NATO engagement, even as he has simultaneously pushed European nations to shoulder more of the burden.
That tension, between supporting Ukraine and demanding Europe do more, defines the summit's underlying dynamic. Trump has long argued that the United States spends more than any other NATO nation on defense while receiving too little in return. The Pentagon is now conducting a formal review of U.S. force posture in Europe, and administration officials have indicated it could eventually reduce America's military footprint on the continent as European nations assume greater responsibility.
Officials stressed that any changes would reflect global strategic priorities rather than politics. But the message to European capitals is hard to miss: if you want American troops on your soil, fund your own armies first.
Beyond Ukraine, the summit agenda includes the aftermath of the U.S. military campaign against Iran and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes. Senior U.S. officials said freedom of navigation through the strait is expected to come up, but they acknowledged a hard reality: many NATO allies lack the naval assets needed for a significant mission there.
That gap between ambition and capability is a recurring theme. NATO members can pledge percentages of GDP, but converting spending into deployable ships, aircraft, and troops takes years. The alliance's willingness to discuss the Strait of Hormuz signals a broadening of its strategic focus, but discussing a mission and executing one are very different things.
Just The News confirmed the broader context: throughout both of his terms, Trump has sought to coax European members of the alliance to increase defense spending and adapt to a reduced U.S. role in defending the continent. The Ankara summit is the latest test of whether that coaxing has produced real results or just better press releases.
Trump arrives in Turkey with his domestic agenda still generating turbulence on Capitol Hill. Internal Republican divisions over the president's legislative priorities have been a persistent backdrop, with Senate leadership privately acknowledging resistance within the GOP caucus on key votes.
The president has not hesitated to use executive authority to enforce discipline within his own party. Earlier this year, Trump ordered the removal of a Republican senator from a committee assignment, a move that sent a clear signal about the cost of defiance.
Foreign summits offer a president the chance to project strength on a stage where partisan squabbles recede. The Ankara gathering gives Trump an opportunity to stand alongside allies who are, by most accounts, spending more on defense because he demanded it. That is a tangible result, regardless of how much further the alliance needs to go.
And there is still a long way to go. The 5% GDP target remains aspirational for most member nations. The Pentagon's force posture review has not yet produced public recommendations. The Ukraine war continues. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. NATO's value has always been measured not by what its members promise at summits but by what they deliver afterward.
Trump has spent years telling NATO allies to put up or shut up. In Ankara, they are putting up, at least on paper. The real test comes when the cameras leave and the defense budgets go before parliaments that have spent decades treating military spending as an afterthought. Promises at a summit table are easy. Keeping them is the part that matters.
