Sherrod Brown holds an eight-point lead over Republican Senator Jon Husted in the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, powered by near-total Democratic unity and significant crossover support from GOP voters who do not identify with the MAGA movement. The Fox News Poll released Wednesday found the former Democratic senator ahead 53% to 45%, a margin outside the survey's ±3-point sampling error.
The numbers should alarm every Republican strategist watching the Buckeye State. Donald Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 points in 2024, winning 55% of the vote. In the November 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis election survey, Trump held a net-positive favorability of +6 among Ohio voters, 52% favorable, 46% unfavorable. That number has now flipped to 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable, a swing of more than 20 points.
Brown, who narrowly lost his Senate seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024, is running to reclaim it. Husted was appointed to fill the vacancy left when JD Vance became vice president. But the appointed incumbent enters this race underwater: 41% of Ohio voters view Husted favorably, while 50% view him unfavorably. Brown, by contrast, sits at 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
The most damaging finding for Husted is the gap in party loyalty. Brown commands 98% of Democratic voters. Husted holds just 86% of Republicans. That 12-point difference in base consolidation is enormous in a competitive state.
Worse for the GOP, Brown is pulling 13% of all Republicans and 31% of those who do not identify as MAGA Republicans. Only 2% of Democrats cross over to Husted. Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, offered a blunt assessment.
"There's good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio. The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown."
Independents favor Brown by 18 points. Women favor him by 14. Non-white voters favor him by 58 points. And voters under 35 prefer Brown by a staggering 33 points.
Husted's coalition looks like the traditional Republican base, but a narrower version of it. White evangelical Christians favor him by 32 points, rural voters by 11, and white men without a college degree by 7. Among white voters overall, the race is knotted at 49-49. Among voters 45 and older, it is essentially tied at 49-48.
The issue landscape should, on paper, favor Republicans. A full 43% of Ohio voters name inflation as the most important issue driving their Senate vote. Healthcare follows at 12%, immigration and border security at 11%, political divisions at 9%, jobs at 8%, and Iran at 7%. Abortion and crime each register at 4%.
Inflation is the top concern across every political group: 50% of independents, 44% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans, and even 34% of self-identified MAGA voters call it their primary issue. Among 2024 Trump voters, 39% say inflation matters most.
Here is the problem for Republicans: voters focused on inflation favor Brown by 14 points. That finding should stop GOP operatives in their tracks. The party that built its 2024 messaging around kitchen-table economics is losing the inflation voter in Ohio to a Democrat. Healthcare voters favor Brown by 44 points. Only on immigration and border security does Husted dominate, leading by 76 points among that smaller slice of the electorate.
The financial mood in Ohio has darkened. Thirty-nine percent of voters say their family's financial situation is falling behind, up from 32% in the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis survey. Forty-nine percent say they are holding steady, down 9 points. Voters are feeling squeezed, and they are not crediting the party in power at the federal level.
That dynamic mirrors broader questions about whether Republican legislative victories are translating into tangible relief for working families fast enough to hold swing-state coalitions together.
Democrats also hold an enthusiasm edge. Eighty-two percent of Democrats say they are extremely or very motivated to vote this November, compared with 76% of Republicans. That six-point gap in self-reported motivation could translate into real turnout differences in an off-cycle election.
Brown's supporters are also more firmly committed. Sixty-eight percent describe their vote as mainly "for" Brown, while 30% say it is mainly "against" Husted. On the Republican side, 58% of Husted supporters say their vote is mainly for him, but 39% say it is mainly against Brown. When nearly four in ten of your voters are motivated primarily by opposition to the other candidate rather than enthusiasm for you, your coalition is brittle.
About one in four Ohio voters say they may change their mind before voting. Seventy-three percent of Brown's supporters call their choice certain, compared with 69% of Husted's backers.
Both candidates carry perceived liabilities. Forty-six percent of Ohio voters say they are worried Husted is "too close" to Trump, including 10% of his own backers. Thirty-nine percent are concerned Brown is "too liberal," and 13% of Brown's supporters share that worry.
The Trump proximity question looms larger in raw numbers, and it aligns with the broader favorability shift. Trump's 20-plus-point swing in Ohio favorability since November 2024 is the backdrop against which Husted must run. Whether that shift reflects policy frustration, fatigue, or something else, the poll does not say. But even Democrats have had to acknowledge Trump's political resilience in other contexts, which makes the Ohio erosion all the more notable.
For Brown, the "too liberal" concern is real but smaller. His challenge is convincing a state Trump won by double digits that a returning Democratic senator will not simply vote as a rubber stamp for progressive priorities. His near-total lock on Democratic voters suggests the party's base is not asking that question. Whether independents and crossover Republicans will keep asking it through November is another matter.
The Ohio governor's race tells a more complicated story. Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are locked in a statistical tie, 50% to 49%. Ramaswamy holds 89% of Republicans, and Acton holds 93% of Democrats. Independents lean toward Acton by 8 points, 51% to 43%.
What stands out is the ticket-splitting. Fourteen percent of voters who prefer Brown in the Senate race cross party lines to support Ramaswamy for governor. That suggests Ramaswamy's brand carries appeal beyond the traditional GOP base, or at least that some Brown voters view the governor's race through a different lens than the Senate contest.
Ramaswamy's favorability sits at 45% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Acton is at 46% favorable and 37% unfavorable, though 16% of voters cannot rate her, a sign she remains less well-known. Sitting GOP Governor Mike DeWine is split evenly at 48-48. Ramaswamy has discussed plans to fight Medicaid fraud in Ohio, aiming to recover billions in taxpayer money, a message that could sharpen his appeal in a state where voters are focused on economic strain.
The anti-vote patterns diverge, too. Thirty-eight percent of Acton supporters say their vote is mainly "against" the other candidate, compared with just 21% of Ramaswamy backers. Ramaswamy's supporters are voting for him, not against Acton. That is a healthier foundation for a campaign.
Meanwhile, developments at the federal level involving the FBI and other agencies continue to shape the political environment in which both races unfold.
One issue unites Ohio voters across party lines: opposition to AI data centers. Buckeye voters oppose having an AI data center built in their area by more than 2-to-1, with 32% in favor and 65% opposed. Democrats oppose them at 72%, independents at 64%, and Republicans at 59%.
That finding should matter to both parties as AI infrastructure becomes a national policy priority. Ohio voters, regardless of ideology, are skeptical of these facilities in their communities.
The Fox News Poll surveyed 1,015 Ohio registered voters selected from a statewide voter file between May 28 and June 1, 2026. Respondents were contacted via live interviewers on landlines (109), cellphones (653), or online after receiving a text message (253). The poll was jointly directed by Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm.
The survey paints a state in transition, or at least in a sour mood. Vice President Vance's favorability in his home state sits at 45% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump's numbers have cratered from their 2024 highs. And the Republican Senate candidate trails by a margin that, if it holds, would hand Democrats a seat in a state the GOP won decisively just two years ago.
Recent controversies involving judicial conduct have only added to the charged political atmosphere nationally, but in Ohio the story is simpler: Republican voters are not fully behind their candidate, and the party's economic message is not landing with the people most worried about prices.
None of this is final. One in four voters say they could change their mind. The election is months away. But the warning signs are specific, measurable, and sitting in plain view.
Republicans can win Ohio. They have done it repeatedly. But they cannot win it by assuming 2024's margins will hold while the voters who delivered those margins tell pollsters they are falling behind, and then blame the party holding power.
