Xavier Becerra, the former Biden administration Health and Human Services secretary, now holds a commanding 52 percent chance of winning the 2026 California governor's race on the prediction market Polymarket, a dramatic surge that owes less to his own record than to the implosion of the candidates around him.
The New York Post reported that Polymarket's Sunday night odds placed Becerra twenty points ahead of his nearest rival, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who trails at roughly 32 percent. The rest of the field barely registers: Steve Hilton sits at 9 percent, Bianco at 3 percent, Porter at 2 percent, and Mahan at 1 percent.
The platform has generated more than $22 million in trading volume on the California governor's race, a sign that real money, not just pundit chatter, is tracking the contest to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Becerra had struggled to gain traction for months. What changed was not a policy breakthrough or a surge of grassroots enthusiasm. It was the spectacular collapse of ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell's campaign this month following allegations of sexual assault. Polls conducted after Swalwell's exit showed Becerra skyrocketing near the top of voter surveys, and his campaign has gained steam as California's June primary nears.
In other words, the frontrunner's rise was less earned than inherited. The Democratic field fractured, and Becerra, a longtime Sacramento insider with deep party connections, was left standing. That pattern has defined this race from the start. Betty Yee, another Democrat, dropped out earlier, blaming party "shame polls" for pushing her aside as the Democratic field splintered.
Swalwell's downfall only accelerated the consolidation. Republican candidate Steve Hilton has pointed to what he calls Democratic "arrogance" in the wake of the scandal, arguing that the party's dysfunction created the opening Becerra now occupies.
Becerra's résumé is long. He served in the California legislature, then as the state's attorney general, before President Biden tapped him to lead Health and Human Services. But length of service is not the same as a record of success, and Becerra's tenure at HHS left serious questions unanswered.
During his time running the agency, HHS lost contact with 85,000 migrant children. That figure alone should be a disqualifying scandal in any normal political environment. Eighty-five thousand children, placed in the care of the federal government, simply fell off the radar. The agency could not account for where they were, who was caring for them, or whether they were safe.
For a candidate now asking Californians to trust him with the largest state government in the country, that record demands answers. Yet in a one-party state where the June primary often decides the general election, Becerra faces little pressure from the left to explain it.
His campaign also carries a more immediate cloud. Sean McCluskie, described as his former aide, pleaded guilty to his role in an alleged scheme to skim funds from a dormant campaign account for a "no-show" job for his wife. Becerra has not been accused of wrongdoing and has denied knowledge of the alleged activity. But the guilty plea of a close associate is the kind of story that, in a competitive political environment, would draw sustained scrutiny.
Steve Hilton, the Republican in the field, sits at just 9 percent on Polymarket. In deep-blue California, those odds are not surprising. But the race is not without interest for conservatives watching from outside the state.
Hilton received a significant boost when President Trump endorsed his candidacy, reshaping the dynamics of a crowded primary. Whether that endorsement can translate into a viable challenge in a state where Democrats dominate registration and turnout remains an open question.
The broader field, Bianco, Porter, Mahan, barely moves the needle. None cracks 4 percent on Polymarket. The battle for Sacramento, as it stands today, is a two-man contest between Becerra and Steyer, with Hilton as a distant third hoping for a breakthrough.
Prediction markets are not polls. They reflect where bettors put their money, not where voters will mark their ballots. But Polymarket's $22 million in trading volume on this race suggests the market is liquid enough to be taken seriously as a signal, even if not as a guarantee.
Becerra's 52 percent share represents a sharp shift from where the race stood before Swalwell's exit. The question now is whether that lead holds through the June primary or whether Steyer, who has the personal fortune to self-fund a massive advertising campaign, can close the gap.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, another prominent figure in the race, has broken with the California Democratic establishment on key issues, arguing that the party's own failures, not President Trump, are responsible for the state's crises. That kind of intra-party dissent has not yet dented Becerra's momentum, but it speaks to a restlessness among California Democrats that the frontrunner will eventually have to address.
What should concern Californians, and anyone watching this race, is the gap between Becerra's record and the lack of serious questioning he faces. An HHS secretary who presided over an agency that lost track of 85,000 children is now the favorite to run the most populous state in the union. A candidate whose former aide pleaded guilty to skimming campaign funds claims ignorance. A career politician whose rise to the top of the field came not from voter enthusiasm but from a rival's disgrace now stands on the verge of a primary win.
In a state with a functioning two-party system, these facts would be the centerpiece of an opposition campaign. In California, they barely make the evening news.
The Swalwell scandal fallout reshuffled the deck. It did not clean it. The same political class that produced the scandal is now rallying behind a new frontrunner whose own record raises questions that no one in Sacramento seems eager to ask.
California's June primary will determine whether Becerra's Polymarket lead translates into real votes. Steyer has the resources to mount a late challenge. Hilton has a national endorsement and a message aimed at voters fed up with one-party rule. But the structural advantages favor Becerra: name recognition, party infrastructure, and a field that has cleared itself through scandal and attrition rather than through any test of ideas.
For the millions of Californians dealing with rising costs, failing schools, and public safety concerns, the question is simple: does the man most likely to replace Gavin Newsom offer anything different from the system that created the problems in the first place?
When your path to power runs through someone else's disgrace, you haven't earned the job. You've just outlasted the competition.
