President Trump's approval rating on the economy has dropped to 30 percent, the lowest mark of either of his terms, as nearly seven in ten Americans say they expect a recession within the next year, according to a CNN survey released this week. The numbers land at a moment when inflation has surged to 3.8 percent, the Iran conflict has driven up food and energy costs, and voters across party lines are reporting real changes to how they live, eat, and drive.
The CNN poll, conducted April 30 through May 4 among 1,499 respondents with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points, found 70 percent disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy. That disapproval figure towers over anything from his first term, when it never broke 50 percent. In CNN's average of second-term polls, his disapproval started at 56 percent and has climbed steadily since.
This matters because the economy was supposed to be the president's strongest card. He won a second term in large part on the promise of restoring prosperity. But five consecutive years of negative public sentiment on the economy, a streak that began during the COVID-19 pandemic and persisted through most of former President Biden's tenure, have left voters deeply skeptical that any president can deliver relief. And the latest data suggest that skepticism is now pointed squarely at Trump.
Sixty-nine percent of CNN's respondents said they believe a recession is likely next year. Only 31 percent disagreed. When asked to describe how they feel about their financial future, 54 percent chose "uncertainty" and 45 percent chose "stress." Just 15 percent said they feel "pride."
Those are not abstract sentiments. Sixty-one percent said they have changed what groceries they buy to stay within their budget. Nearly 45 percent reported cutting back significantly on driving. And 31 percent said they have delayed medical treatment because of cost.
That last figure should alarm anyone who cares about the real-world consequences of an affordability crisis. When nearly a third of the country is putting off seeing a doctor, the problem has moved well past grocery bills and gas prices.
Three-quarters of respondents told CNN the economy unfairly favors powerful interests. About the same share said it is harder to get ahead now than it was a generation ago, and a similar number said it will be even harder for the next generation. The belief that Americans can succeed through hard work has dropped 20 points since 2016, with only about 47 percent still holding that view.
The CNN survey is not an outlier. An AP-NORC poll found Trump's approval on the economy fell from 38 percent in March to 30 percent in April. His overall job approval in that survey dropped to 33 percent. Only about one-quarter of Americans approved of his handling of the cost of living, and Republican support on the economy slid from 74 percent to 62 percent in a single month.
The erosion among independents is especially sharp. A Center Square Voters' Voice Poll of 2,659 registered voters found that 65 percent of true independents disapprove of Trump's performance, with only 24 percent approving and a mere 7 percent saying they strongly approve. Those are the swing voters who decide elections.
The administration's broader political position has also taken hits on other fronts. Trump recently clashed publicly with his own Supreme Court appointees after a tariff ruling went against him, a reminder that governing in a second term comes with friction even from allies.
The Labor Department reported on Tuesday that inflation jumped 3.8 percent, driven by the war in Iran sending food and energy prices higher. Separate Labor Department data showed the economy added 115,000 new jobs last month, with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. The jobs number is respectable, but it is the inflation figure that voters feel every time they fill a gas tank or buy groceries.
The Iran conflict has created a direct economic feedback loop. Rising energy costs ripple through supply chains, push up the price of everything from bread to shipping, and leave households making harder choices each month. The administration has been navigating the crisis on multiple tracks, Trump has signaled willingness to escalate militarily if nuclear talks fail, and he ordered a naval response after Iran's moves in the Strait of Hormuz.
Those are serious national security decisions. But voters judge presidents on what they see at the checkout counter. And right now, what they see is higher prices with no clear end date.
A Fox News poll reported by the New York Post found that 46 percent of registered voters said Trump's economic policies have personally hurt them, while only 15 percent said those policies have helped. Trump's approval in that survey fell to 41 percent, down eight points from March, with 58 percent disapproving. Most striking: voters blamed Trump more than Biden for current economic conditions by a margin of 62 percent to 32 percent.
That blame shift is significant. For much of 2024 and into early 2025, voters still associated high prices with the Biden era. The fact that a majority now holds Trump responsible suggests the political window for blaming the previous administration has closed.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the public mood without conceding ground, telling Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" that the administration would not dismiss how Americans feel about the economy. He predicted a "substantial acceleration in the economy in the first, second quarter" of next year. That is a bet on future performance, and voters have heard similar promises before.
National Review reported that Trump's own team has urged him to travel the country promoting his economic record while acknowledging voters' concerns about affordability. Instead, the president has continued to dismiss those concerns, calling them an "affordability hoax" and insisting that "prices are coming down very substantially."
He also told Americans they don't need "37 dolls" for their daughter, "two or three is nice." That kind of remark may play well at a rally, but it lands differently with a family that has put off a doctor's visit because the co-pay is too steep.
The political challenge here is straightforward. When voters tell pollsters they are stressed, uncertain, and changing their daily habits to cope with costs, a president who responds by saying the problem is exaggerated risks widening the gap between his message and their experience. That gap is where elections are lost.
The administration still has time and tools. The Strait of Hormuz blockade was a decisive move aimed at restoring leverage over energy markets. If Iran talks produce results and energy prices stabilize, the inflation picture could improve. And Trump has shown throughout his career that he can shift political dynamics quickly when he engages on kitchen-table issues.
But the current trajectory demands more than optimism. It demands a strategy that meets voters where they are, not where the White House wishes they were. The president's midterm endorsement strategy will mean little if Republican candidates are running into a headwind of voter frustration over prices and paychecks.
Five years of negative economic sentiment is not any single president's fault. The pandemic, supply-chain disruptions, years of loose monetary policy, and now a foreign conflict have all contributed. But voters do not grade on a curve. They grade on groceries, gas, and whether they can afford to see a doctor.
Thirty percent approval on the economy is a number that should concentrate minds in the West Wing. The public is not asking for miracles. They are asking for acknowledgment, and a plan that matches the scale of the problem.
When nearly a third of the country is skipping medical care to make ends meet, the last thing they need to hear is that the problem is a hoax.
