The Republican Party just won a string of redistricting battles that have the party in its strongest position yet in terms of the 2026 midterm election.
States such as Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee were all able to redraw maps that would appear to favor Republicans far more than the previous maps.
There is still one thing battling the GOP in terms of being able to win a midterm election after a change in party in the White House, that being history. History has not been kind, only giving the new party a victory in two of the last 20 elections, and they were extraordinary circumstances (The Great Depression and the 9/11 attacks).
According to The American Presidency Project, midterm elections are historically bad for the party in power.
In the 20 mid-term elections dating back to 1946, 18 of them have resulted in the party of the sitting president losing seats in the House. Of those defeats, only six of them lost fewer than 10 seats.
Since World War II, the average loss in the House during a midterm for the party in power has been 28 seats. It soars above 40 seats when the approval rating of the president is below 50%, and Donald Trump is now well below that threshold.
Trump had a higher approval rating during his first term at this stage of his presidency, and he lost 40 seats in Congress. Before the gerrymandering war, I thought this election would be far worse than that, but I now believe that number could be a worst-case scenario.
Here is a quick look at what history has shown us and what Trump and Republicans are hoping to achieve:
| Factor | Historical Pattern | 2026 Reality | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| President's party midterm losses since 1946 | Lost seats in 18 of 20 elections (90%) | Republicans hold a 2-seat majority | History says lose the House |
| Average House seat loss (post-WWII) | 28 seats | Dems need a net gain of 5 to flip | History says flip is likely |
| Average loss with approval below 50% | 37 seats | Trump at 40.5% approval | History says significant wave |
| Redistricting net GOP gain | N/A | +6 to +7 seats projected (Cook) | Helps, but not enough |
| Generic ballot deficit | N/A | Democrats +10 (Emerson, April 2026) | Comparable to 2018 environment |
| Trump first midterm (2018) | Lost 40 seats, lost the House | Same president, lower approval now | Warning sign |
| Only exceptions (1934, 2002) | Great Depression + 9/11 | No comparable national unifying event | No exception applies |
Sources: American Presidency Project, Cook Political Report, Emerson College Polling (April 2026), FiveThirtyEight historical midterm data, Gallup presidential approval tracking.
Donald Trump’s approval rating is now at its lowest during either term, sitting at 40.5%, with a 56.3% disapproval rating.
The attacks by Democrats and rising prices brought on by Operation Epic Fury have taken their toll. Trump took office with a 50.5% approval rating and a 44.3% disapproval rating. And while I never expected him to be able to maintain that, I did not see him taking this bad of a hit with Republicans in charge of both chambers of Congress.
Republicans are down by 10% in generic polling for the House, but I put little weight into that number. It is about as useless as national polling over state polling in a presidential election due to the Electoral College.
We need to look at the hard issues and literally go district by district to get a true picture of where we stand, which I will get to in just a second.
In terms of the issues, the patience of the American people has worn thin for the economy, with Trump now sitting at 56% disapproval, as well as a 54% disapproval of this foreign policy, two issues that were key for Trump in the election.
The killer for Trump, however, is the reaction to Operation Epic Fury, as Democrats have been very successful in their message that this is a useless war. I don’t see it that way, and I have backed the operation from the outset, but overall, only 35% of Americans see it as more of a success than a failure, and I am not sure Trump can overcome that when you couple the operation with the coinciding rise in gasoline prices.
The GOP only has a cushion of two seats right now, so when you add up all these factors, the reality is that we lose the House. The only thing in question is how badly the GOP loses it. A lot of that will depend on gasoline prices coming down, as the prices of other products will naturally follow.
The GOP was behind Democrats in gerrymandering prior to this new battle, but it made up significant ground, at least for now.
The crushing blow for Democrats was the overruling of the Virginia maps by its State Supreme Court.
In Florida, Governor DeSantis created very aggressive new maps, but they may be too aggressive, according to some Republicans, as reported by the Miami Herald. Republicans are still expected to gain seats, but the feeling is that DeSantis may have created competitive districts in some areas where the GOP had previously dominated.
Tennessee has all but guaranteed that the lone seat held by Democrats will be eliminated by breaking up Shelby County into three separate districts.
Other states that have flipped their maps during this gerrymandering battle are Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri, with Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina still in the pipeline.
Democrats already held a significant advantage in states like Maryland, New York, and California, but the advantage in California increased after Governor Gavin Newsom had his maps redrawn to counter Texas.
According to the Cook Political Report, the GOP will pick up about seven seats from all this redistricting, which is unlikely to be enough to hold the House. In the table below, you can see the seats that are still projected as a toss-up:
Source: Cook Political Report, May 2026. Ratings updated May 8 to reflect Florida/Tennessee redistricting and Virginia map changes.
As noted above, I initially thought 40 seats lost was reasonable, but redistricting changes all that. Cook now has 191 Republican seats marked as safe, and 175 seats marked as safe for Democrats.
The danger for the GOP is if the economy gets worse, gasoline prices get higher, and these wars are still not ended. That could take a possible 10-seat loss and turn it into a 20-seat loss in a heartbeat, with a ceiling of about 35 to 40 seats.
I am looking toward the more hopeful aspect of this, as I believe these wars will be wrapped up, and I still believe the economy has much brighter days ahead in terms of the staples that impact us all the most.
Realistically, this is about minimizing the damage to try to get the House back in 2028 or 2030 if the GOP loses the 2028 presidential election. So, on that front, things are looking far more positive than they were just a few months ago.
There is also the upside in how people react if Trump can turn his approval rating around in the next three to four months. And he does not need a 50% approval rating, as we merely need to see him trending upward.
All that said, I am going to lock in to a 20+ seat loss right now, but that is far from a firm number. If Congress actually does its job, passes the SAVE Act, or some form of it, and we see key prices lowered, it would be a huge momentum swing at the perfect time.
My point is not to get discouraged but to set realistic goals. This fight is not over. This may not be what you wanted to hear, but it is an honest assessment of where we stand right now.
