Marco Rubio jumped from 3% to 35% in the annual CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, a twelve-fold surge that signals the Secretary of State is building real momentum inside the conservative base. Vice President JD Vance still led the field at 53%, but his share dropped eight points from last year's 61%, and the gap between the two men shrank from a blowout to a competitive spread.
Every other potential Republican contender scored in the low single digits. For now, the 2028 conversation inside the party belongs to two men, and they both work for the same boss.
The informal survey of CPAC attendees, reported by Fox News Digital, captures a shift driven largely by Rubio's rising foreign-policy profile. His increased responsibilities around the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the month-long strikes against Iran have pushed him into the spotlight in ways the State Department job doesn't always guarantee. President Trump recently declared Rubio would go down as "the greatest secretary of state in history", the kind of endorsement that carries weight with primary voters who take their cues from the top.
A year ago, Rubio barely registered. His 3% showing at CPAC last year made him an afterthought in a field dominated by Vance. The vice president's 61% looked like a coronation-in-waiting. That picture has changed fast.
Rubio's 35% this year didn't come out of nowhere. Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and the man who oversees the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, told Fox News Digital that the numbers track with what his own polling shows.
"His overall favorability is going up because voters see him as a capable and steady person in the president's cabinet, and Trump supporters are reacting."
New Hampshire matters here. The state has long held the first primary in the GOP presidential nominating calendar, and movement in its polls tends to foreshadow real shifts in the race. The New York Post noted that Rubio's increased visibility on foreign policy and national security, including the Iran conflict, has helped elevate his standing among conservative voters.
Rubio was one of more than a dozen Republican contenders who ran against Trump in the 2016 presidential race and lost. That history matters. He knows what a national campaign looks like, and he knows what it costs. He has been crisscrossing the globe as part of his job requirements, but every foreign capital visit doubles as a résumé line for a future run.
Fifty-three percent is still a commanding number. Vance remains the clear front-runner, and President Trump said last year that Vance is "most likely" his heir apparent. That kind of backing from the sitting president is the single most valuable asset in a Republican primary.
Vance has stepped into an increasingly active leadership role within the administration. He has built a political team of advisers, and while he has demurred when asked directly about 2028, he hasn't exactly slammed the door shut.
In a Fox News interview last fall, Vance acknowledged the question is on his mind. He told the network he has "thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections," but added a qualifier:
"But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now and my job is to do it."
That's the kind of careful non-denial that keeps options open. And Vance has been doing more than just managing the vice-presidential portfolio. He has taken the lead on major administration matters, including the DOJ's involvement in fraud investigations, broadening his public footprint well beyond the ceremonial side of the office.
Both men are working hard to keep the relationship friendly, at least publicly. Last month, Vance told Fox News' Martha MacCallum that Rubio is his closest friend in the administration.
"I think it's so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn't any conflict."
Rubio has struck the same note. In comments to Vanity Fair late last year, he was direct about where he'd stand if Vance runs.
"If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him."
An unnamed operative in Trump's political orbit reinforced the message, telling Fox News Digital that "Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration." The operative added that "the divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful."
That last line is telling. It confirms what the numbers already suggest: some Republican donors are quietly working to boost Rubio's political profile. When operatives feel the need to push back on donor maneuvering, the maneuvering is real.
President Trump has done something unusual. Rather than pick sides, he has promoted the idea of a Vance-Rubio ticket, calling it "unstoppable" a few months ago. He did not specify who should sit at the top.
Trump told reporters, "In all fairness, he's the vice president," when asked about Vance's position. That statement acknowledges Vance's structural advantage without foreclosing Rubio's ambitions. It's the kind of careful framing that keeps both men loyal and competitive, which may be exactly the point.
Rubio has navigated the internal dynamics of the Trump administration before. He walked back public comments after a high-profile disagreement with the president over Israel policy, demonstrating the kind of institutional discipline that keeps you in the room. And Trump has continued to elevate Rubio into significant roles, including appointing him to the Gaza peace board, a move that expanded his foreign-policy portfolio even further.
CPAC straw polls are snapshots, not predictions. The attendees skew activist, and the sample is self-selecting. No total respondent count was released. The poll doesn't tell us how Rubio or Vance would perform in a national primary electorate, and it doesn't account for the dozen variables, from economic conditions to Trump's own political standing, that will shape the 2028 landscape.
But the direction of the numbers is harder to dismiss. A 32-point swing in Rubio's favor over twelve months, combined with an eight-point decline for Vance, is not noise. It reflects something real about how the conservative base is processing Rubio's performance in office.
The foreign-policy portfolio has given Rubio something most cabinet secretaries never get: a daily reason to appear on camera looking competent and decisive. Venezuela, Iran, and the broader diplomatic chessboard have kept him in the news cycle in ways that reinforce the qualities primary voters say they want, strength, steadiness, and results.
Vance, for his part, has the institutional advantage of the vice presidency, the president's stated preference, and a political team already in place. Those are not small things. History favors sitting vice presidents in open primaries, and Vance has used his position to build a record that goes well beyond the usual ribbon-cutting.
The 2028 race is still a long way off. Midterms haven't happened yet. The policy landscape will shift. But the early positioning tells you something about the health of the Republican bench. Two serious, capable figures are building support inside the party without tearing it apart, at least so far.
Whether the friendship holds when the stakes get higher is a different question. Donor money, media attention, and primary calendars have a way of testing even the closest alliances. For now, Rubio is climbing and Vance is leading, and the rest of the field is nowhere in sight.
A party that can field two strong contenders without a civil war is a party in better shape than most of its critics want to admit.
