A new NBC News poll released Sunday delivered brutal numbers for the two Democrats most aggressively positioning themselves for a 2028 presidential run. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris are both underwater with registered voters, and it isn't close.
Harris, the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, drew a 51% negative rating against just 34% positive. Newsom fared even worse on the spread: only 27% of the 1,000 registered voters surveyed view him positively, while 45% hold a negative view.
These are not numbers that launch presidential campaigns. These are numbers that end them.
The Post reports that Harris remains the favorite among Democratic voters, with 67% viewing her positively compared to 52% for Newsom. That gap matters as the party begins its hunt for a 2028 standard-bearer, but it also reveals a familiar Democratic problem. The candidate their base prefers is the one the broader electorate rejects most decisively.
Harris's 51% negative rating among all registered voters is a 17-point underwater gap. Newsom's is 18 points.
For a party that just lost a presidential election it expected to win, the bench looks less like a roster and more like a liability sheet.
Despite numbers that should prompt some introspection, both Harris and Newsom are keeping the door wide open.
Harris hasn't explicitly said she will seek the Oval Office again, but she hasn't ruled it out either. She told podcaster Sharon McMahon, in February, that she "might" run again. In October, she went further with the BBC: "I am not done."
She added that politics is "in my bones." The country, apparently, does not share the sentiment. When a majority of voters view you negatively after a full presidential campaign, the problem isn't name recognition. It's the name itself.
Newsom, meanwhile, told CNN in February that the decision would come down to family. He recounted a conversation with one of his children:
"I said, 'No, we'll do [the] decision as a family.' He goes, 'You can't.' I said, 'Why?' He goes, 'I'm too young. You need to spend more time with us.'"
He followed up with a line that was clearly meant to sound endearing: "I mean, how do you deal with that one?" It's a nice anecdote. It also sidesteps the more relevant question, which is how a governor with a 27% positive rating nationally plans to introduce himself to the other 73%.
Both Harris and Newsom carry the same fundamental burden: California. For Democratic primary voters, the state represents progressive ambition. For the rest of the country, it represents something else entirely. Homelessness, unaffordable housing, an exodus of residents and businesses, rolling energy policy failures, and a government that treats taxpayers like an inexhaustible resource.
Newsom has governed California. Harris launched her political career there. Neither can run from the state's record, and neither seems inclined to try. Instead, both appear to believe that the electorate simply needs more exposure to their vision. The poll suggests the electorate has seen plenty.
There's a reason the survey also asked primary voters whether they prefer a party-aligned candidate or someone more likely to win a general election. Democrats are beginning to confront a tension they papered over in 2024: their base wants ideological purity, and the broader electorate wants competence and moderation. Harris and Newsom offer the base what it wants. The general election numbers tell you what everyone else thinks about that bargain.
The deeper issue for Democrats isn't that Harris and Newsom poll poorly. It's that these are their frontrunners. After a presidential loss, a healthy party typically sees fresh faces emerge, candidates who represent a course correction rather than a doubling down. Instead, the Democratic field is coalescing around the same two figures who embody the policies and postures voters just rejected.
Harris ran a full general election campaign and lost. Newsom has spent years auditioning for a national role from Sacramento while his state's quality of life deteriorated. Neither represents change. Both represent continuity with an approach that a majority of registered voters have already weighed and found wanting.
The California Post reached out to Newsom's office for comment about the poll. The silence, if it holds, might be the smartest move either of these candidates has made so far.
Fifty-one percent of voters view Harris negatively. Twenty-seven percent view Newsom positively. And yet both insist they aren't done. The voters seem to disagree.
